[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1235 PM EST Mon Jan 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1735 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N14E to Liberia near 04N08W, to
04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N50W on the Brazil
coast. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough
from 02N-05N between 00W-08W. Scattered moderate convection is
along the ITCZ from 05S-05N between 20W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with 10-15 kt with SE
flow. Continued clear skies cover the E Gulf near, and including
Florida, with partly cloudy conditions over the Central and W
Gulf, and Texas. An upper level high is centered over Mexico near
21N100W. An upper level ridge axis extends from the high center
to the Florida Panhandle.

Surface high pressure will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico
forecast waters through midweek. Fresh northerly winds will
follow a cold front entering the northern Gulf Wed morning and
move across the eastern Gulf through Thu night. Low pressure may
emerge into the NW Gulf along a developing cold front by the end
of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean, just E of
the Yucatan Penninsula. Scattered moderate showers with isolated
thunderstorms are over the NW Caribbean and Honduras, N of 16N
and W of 80W. The surface pressure gradient between a ridge of
high pressure north of the Caribbean and the Colombian low is
supporting fresh to strong winds across the south central
Caribbean.

Broad high pressure NE of the area in the central tropical
Atlantic will provide fresh to strong winds across the central
Caribbean through mid week, diminsihing slightly by the end of the
week as the high weakens. The highest winds are expected near
coast of Colombia at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N54W to 27N65W, and
stationary thereafter to the N Bahamas near 25N72W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the cold front. A 1022 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 28N44W. A stationary front
is over the E Atlantic from 31N27W to 24N31W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the front N of 27N.

The stationary front over the W Atlantic will become diffuse by
Wed. Another cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida
Tue night and Wed, and reach a position from Bermuda to central
Cuba late Wed, and from 26N65W to the Windward Passage by late
Thu. The front will stall and become diffuse from 24N65W to
northern Haiti by Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Manougian
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