[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 PM EST Mon Jan 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic from the SW coast of
Liberia near 05N08W and extends to 03N10W. The ITCZ continues from
03N10W to 02N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
between the west coast of Africa and 37W, south of a line from
11N16W to 06N23W to 03N30W to 03N37W. Scattered showers are noted
south of 03N between 37W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, especially the
eastern Gulf, where gentle E-SE winds are observed. Moderate SE
flow covers the western Gulf. Partly cloudy skies covers most of
the Gulf. However, increasing mid-level clouds are now moving into
the NW Gulf, influenced by a front over Texas. No significant
precipitation is observed over the Gulf at this time. An upper
level ridge axis extends from SE Louisiana to the west-central
Gulf near 24N95W to southern Mexico near 18N98W and into the East
Pacific.

High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through
midweek. Fresh northerly winds will follow a cold front entering
the northern Gulf Wed morning. The front will sink slowly
southward over the Gulf through Thu night. Low pres may develop
over the NW Gulf along the next cold front expected to arrive on
Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean, just E of
the Yucatan Penninsula and north of Honduras. Scattered moderate
showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Caribbean from 16N-20N
between 81W-89W. Isolated showers are from north of 20N to
southern Cuba between 77W-85W. Fresh trades continue across most
of the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong trades near the
coast of Colombia.

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean through mid
week, diminishing slightly by the end of the week as the high
weakens. The highest winds are expected near the coast of Colombia
at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front over South Carolina extends into the forecast area as
a stationary front from 32N76W to 31N74W. No convection is noted,
and moderate east winds are present in the area. Farther east, a
cold front extends into the area from 32N57W to 31N60W. Another
front, shown as a weakening stationary front, extends from 32N51W
to 29N56W to 26N64W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the
front north of 29N between 45W-50W. Both of these frontal systems
extend northward and are associated with a 992 mb low centered
near 43N48W. Gales associated with this system are confined to
areas north of 33N. However, strong winds extend southward to
about 29N between 45W-58W.

In the NE Atlantic, a stationary front extends into the area from
32N27W to 27N30W. An upper-level low is near 33N29W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen north of 26N between 23W-28W. A 1020
mb high is centered near 27N42W.

Weak high pressure is maintaining gentle to moderate easterly
breezes across the region east of Florida and from the Bahamas
northward. A cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida
Tue night and Wed, reach from Bermuda to central Cuba late Wed,
and from 26N65W to the Windward Passage by late Thu before
stalling and becoming diffuse from 24N65W to northern Haiti Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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