[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071112
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
612 AM EST Mon Jan 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 05N00W to Liberia near 05N09W to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 01N30W to 00N40W to
Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 00W-16W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the ITCZ from 05S-05N between 16W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with 10-15 kt E to SE
flow. Clear skies cover the E Gulf and Florida, with partly
cloudy conditions over the W Gulf and Texas. In the upper
levels,an upper level high is centered over Mexico near 21N100W.
An upper level ridge axis extends from the high center to the
Florida Panhandle.

Surface high pressure will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico
forecast waters through midweek. Fresh northerly winds will
follow a cold front entering the northern Gulf Wed and moving
across the eastern Gulf through Thu. Low pres may develop in the
NW Gulf along a developing cold front by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper-level trough is also over the NW Caribbean.
Scattered moderate showers with isolated thunderstorms are over
the NW Caribbean and Honduras N of 15N and W of 80W. The surface
pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure north of the
Caribbean and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong
winds across the south central Caribbean. Scatterometer data
shows an area of 20 to 25 kt north of Colombia from 11-12.5N
between 74W-77W.

Broad high pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong
winds across the central Caribbean through mid week, diminishing
some by the end of the week as the high weakens. The highest winds
are expected near coast of Colombia at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N57W to 27N65W. A
stationary front continues to the N Bahamas near 24N75W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the cold front. A 1022 mb
high is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N47W. A
dissipating cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N27W to
26N30W to 23N40W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front
N of 27N.

The cold front over the W Atlantic will become diffuse Wed.
Another cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida Tue
night and Wed, and reach a position from Bermuda to central Cuba
late Wed, and from 26N65W to the Windward Passage by late Thu. The
front will stall and become diffuse from 24N65W to northern Haiti
Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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