[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1226 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE NE winds to 40 kt, and sea heights ranging from 11
feet to 16 feet, are along the coast of N Colombia from 11N to
13.5N between 74W and 76W. Little change is forecast for the next
48 hours. Please read the High Seas forecast product under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 01N28W
01N37W, to 02N40W, and to 02N44W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 10N southward between 15W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

One stationary front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into
the north central Gulf of Mexico, continuing into the west central
Gulf of Mexico, and then into the SW corner of the area. A second
stationary front passes through south central Louisiana, and it
moves inland in Mexico just to the south of the Texas border.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
24N to 26N between 92W and 95W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
to the west of the line that runs from the Florida Big Bend to the
NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The two frontal boundaries will merge into one cold front. That
resulting front will extend from the Mississippi River to the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday evening; from the Florida
Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday; and then pass
eastward across the Straits of Florida on Saturday. Strong to near
gale-force northerly winds are forecast to develop across the
western Gulf of Mexico waters late on Thursday, increasing very
briefly to minimal gale-force along the coast of Mexico near
Veracruz late on Friday. The wind speeds and the sea heights will
diminish on Saturday and Sunday, as high pressure will build
across the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered-to-broken low level clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are from the A-B-C Islands northward from 70W eastward,
from 13N northward between 70W and 77W, and elsewhere from 77W
westward, including in parts of the NW corner of the area and in
parts of the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The GFS model forecast consists of a 250 mb anticyclonic
circulation center in the Windward Passage. Broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow will cover the area that is from 70W eastward.
An upper level trough extends from 15N76W into the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
the SW corner of the area from 13N southward from 72W westward.
Large-scale anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea at
500 mb and at 700 mb.

Strong to near gale-force trade winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean Sea through Friday, when the surface pressure
gradient will begin to relax. Near-gale force wind conditions
will continue across the south central Caribbean Sea through the
upcoming weekend, increasing to gale-force along the NW coast of
Colombia each night through Thursday night. Gale-force wind
conditions will continue through the middle of each morning
before diminishing. Locally strong nocturnal trade winds are
forecast across the western Gulf of Honduras through sunrise on
Wednesday. Locally strong winds are forecast across the Windward
Passage through sunrise on Wednesday. A cold front will move
through the Yucatan Channel late on Friday, then stall from
western Cuba to the NE Yucatan Peninsula from Saturday into
Sunday. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere
through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A first cold front passes through 32N35W to 26N40W 20N50W 19N57W
and 21N66W. A second cold front passes through 32N37W to 28N40W
24N48W 25N52W and 28N56W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are within 150 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N33W to 27N35W to 20N40W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere to the west and northwest of the line that
passes through 32N26W to 20N30W 14N45W, and 09N60W.

A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast on Friday night,
accompanied by a strong wind shift to the N of 29N. This strong
front will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Saturday
night, with the front stalling from 26N65W to the SE Bahamas early
on Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue along the N
coast of Hispaniola and the Atlc approach to the Windward Passage
through late Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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