[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
548 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale force winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through
early Thu. High pressure north of the area has been supporting
persistent gales over the south central Caribbean for the past
several days, particularly at night with an added component of
localized drainage flow off the coast of Colombia. These winds
will diminish mid to late week as the high pressure weakens.
Please refer to the High Seas forecast product under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N10W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 01N45W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong convection is observed within
120 nm of the ITCZ between 15W and 25W, and from 05N to 08N
between 35W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southeast Louisiana to the mouth
of the Rio Grande. Buoy, platform, and scatterometer data show
fresh NE winds along the Texas coast west of the front, but
generally moderate E to SE winds elsewhere across the northwest
Gulf. A few showers may be active across the northwest Gulf as
well, but no significant showers, thunderstorms or fog is noted
elsewhere. Fresh E winds are also noted in the Straits of Florida,
but generally light to gentle E to SE winds are noted elsewhere.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft across most of the Gulf.

For the forecast, an upper disturbance will move from the southern
Rockies into the Southern Plains through tonight. This will
energize the stationary front, which will will move east as a cold
front Thu and reach from Pensacola Florida to Coatzacoalcos
Mexico by early Fri. then sweep southeast of the Gulf Sat. Fresh
to strong winds will follow the front across the western Gulf,
possibly reaching minimal gale force off the coast of Veracruz
Mexico Fri. Winds and seas will diminish late Fri through Sat as
high pressure builds in the wake of the front. SE return flow will
start to increase over the northwest Gulf by late Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over the central Atlc and lower pressure over
Colombia is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the
Caribbean, with winds to gale force off the coast of Colombia.
Recent scatterometer passes have been showing this, and
concurrent altimeter satellite passes along with various buoy data
have been showing 12 to 16 ft seas over the area of strong winds
and gales in the south central and southwest Caribbean, and 8 to
12 ft elsewhere south of 18N, to include the Gulf of Honduras.
Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds have been pushing into the
northern approaches to the Windward Passage as well. Generally
moderate E winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are noted over the far
northeast Caribbean. E swell reaching 8 ft has been propagating
into the waters east of the Windward Islands, but a recent
altimeter pass indicates this may be subsiding. Caribbean radar
mosaics have been showing a few fast-moving trade wind showers
mainly over the eastern Caribbean, but otherwise no significant
showers or thunderstorms are noted.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish slightly through
late week as the high pressure weakens and shifts ahead of a cold
front moving into the far NW Caribbean Sat, before stalling and
weakening Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 55W, a ridge along 28N is maintaining generally light to
gentle breezes north of 25N with 3 to 5 ft, and moderate to fresh
trade winds south of 25N. Fresh to strong winds continue to pulse
off the north coast of Haiti, to include the approaches to the
Windward Passage. For the forecast, the ridging along 28N will
shift east through Fri ahead of cold front moving off the coast of
northeast Florida late Fri. The front move east and reach from
near Bermuda to western Cuba by early Sun, then stall and weaken
along roughly 23N through late Sun.

East of 55W, a prominent mid/upper trough reaches from 32N38W to
across the Windward Islands. At the surface, this is supporting a
cold front reaching from 30N35W to 18.5N50W to the Leeward
Islands. A few thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm east of the
front from 20N to 25N, near the colder, more unstable core of the
mid/upper trough. An earlier scatterometer pass indicated fresh
to strong southerly winds within 240 nm east of of the front
north of 25N. A reinforcing front may about to merge with the
first front, and the merged front will continue to move eastward
into the eastern Atlc through Fri. Long period NW swell is
following the fronts, and various altimeter satellite passes
having been indicated 8 to 12 ft seas mainly north of 25N. Farther
south, the same altimeter passes have been showing 7 to 10 ft
seas south of 13N, likely in a mix of NW and shorter period NE
trade wind swell.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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