[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1221 PM EST Tue Jan 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE NE-to-E winds to 40 kt, and sea heights ranging from
11 feet to 16 feet, are along the coast of N Colombia from 11N to
13.5N between 74W and 76W. Little change is forecast for the next
48 hours. Please read the High Seas forecast product under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from
07N15W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 01/1500 UTC, a stationary front passes through southern
Mississippi near 31N88W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 25N95W to S
Mexico near 20N97W. A reinforcing cold front extends from S
Louisiana near 30N92W to 27N96W to S Texas near 27N97W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of both fronts. Broken high clouds are
also over the NW Gulf W of 94W. 10-15 kt SW return flow is over
the remainder of the Gulf with mostly fair weather and warm
temperatures.

This stationary front will drift back W over the NW gulf waters
tonight through Wed night, then merge with the reinforcing cold
front then move E again early Thu reaching from the Mississippi
Delta to the Bay of Campeche Thu evening, reaching from the
Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Fri, and then pass E
across the Straits of Florida on Sat. Strong to near gale force
northerly winds are forecast to develop across the western gulf
waters late Thu, increasing very briefly to minimal gale force
along the Mexican coast near Veracruz Mexico late Fri. A trough
will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon
through Fri, move W across the SW gulf during the overnight hours
and lose identity by late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered-to-broken low level clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line, from
13N69W to the north of the A-B-C Islands, to 14N75W, to 15N80W,
and elsewhere from 80W westward moving toward and reaching many
parts of Central America.

Scattered-to-broken low level clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers also are to the NE and E of the line that runs from
the Windward Passage to NE Venezuela.

Strong to near gale force trades will prevail across the Central
Caribbean through Fri when the pressure gradient will begin to
relax. Near gale conditions will continue across the S-Central
Caribbean through the upcoming weekend, increasing to gale force
along the NW coast of Colombia each night through Thu night, with
the gale conditions continuing through the middle of each morning
before diminishing. Locally strong nocturnal trades are forecast
across the western Gulf of Honduras through sunrise on Wed.
Locally strong winds are forecast across the Windward Passage
through sunrise on Wed. A cold front will move through the Yucatan
Channel late Fri, then stall from Central Cuba to northern Belize
on Sat into Sun. Moderate to fresh trades expected elsewhere
through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N63W. A cold
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N37W, to 22N50W to 22N60W
to 24N70W. A second reinforcing cold front passes through 31N41W
to 29N47W to 31N55W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 25N
between 36W-50W. A dissipating stationary front is over the E
Atlantic from 31N20W to 26N32W to 18N40W to 14N50W.

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge from 29N65W to Port Canaveral will
shift S to along 27N on Wed. A cold front will move off the NE
Florida coast on Fri night accompanied by a strong wind shift to
the N of 29N. This strong front will reach from Bermuda to the
Central Bahamas on Sat night, with the front stalling from 26N65W
to the SE Bahamas early Mon. Fresh to strong trades will continue
along the N coast of Hispaniola and the Atlc approach to the
Windward Passage through late Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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