[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011212
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
712 AM EST Tue Jan 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE NE-to-E winds to 40 kt, and sea heights ranging from
11 feet to 16 feet, are along the coast of N Colombia from 11N to
13N between 74W and 76W. Little change is forecast for the next
42 hours. Please read the High Seas forecast product under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to
05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through southern Mississippi near
31N89W to an embedded 1015 mb low over the NW Gulf of Mexico near
26N93W to S Mexico near 18N95W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and isolated rainshowers are west of 90W.

The current front from SE Louisiana to Veracruz Mexico will move
NW today as a weak warm front, before stalling overnight near or
along the Texas and Louisiana coasts into Wed. The front will move
E again as a cold front Wed night, reaching from the SE Louisiana
to the Bay of Campeche Thu, from the Florida Big Bend to the
Yucatan Peninsula Fri, and finally move E of the area Sat. Strong
northerly winds are forecast to develop across the western gulf
waters late Thu, increasing to near gale and even briefly to
minimal gale force along the Mexican coast near Veracruz Mexico
late Fri. A trough will develop over the western Yucatan Peninsula
each afternoon through Fri, move W across the SW gulf during the
overnight hours and lose identity by late each morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered-to-broken low level clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line, from
13N69W to the north of the A-B-C Islands, to 14N75W, to 15N80W,
and elsewhere from 80W westward moving toward and reaching many
parts of Central America.

Scattered-to-broken low level clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers also are to the NE and E of the line that runs from
the Windward Passage to NE Venezuela.

Strong to near gale force trades will prevail across the Central
Caribbean through Sat, increasing to gale force along the NW coast
of Colombia each night and continuing through the middle of each
morning before diminishing. Locally strong nocturnal trades are
forecast across the western Gulf of Honduras through Tue night.
Locally strong winds are forecast across the Windward Passage
through Wed night. A cold front will move through the Yucatan
Channel early Fri, before stalling from Central Cuba to northern
Belize on Fri night. Moderate to fresh trades expected elsewhere
through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is associated with
the current cold front that is passing through 31N37W, to 24N50W
24N60W and 26N69W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 25N
between 37W-50W. A second reinforcing cold front passes through
31N48W to 30N52W and 31N57W. A dissipating stationary front is
over the E Atlantic from 31N20W to 19N40W.

Over the W Atlantic, a strong cold front will move off the N
Florida coast late Fri accompanied by a strong wind shift to the N
of 29N. This strong front will reach from Bermuda to the Central
Bahamas on Sat night. Fresh to strong trades will continue along
the N coast of Hispaniola and the Atlc approach to the Windward
Passage.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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