[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Thu Feb 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from West Africa near 09N13W to 02N19W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N19W to the coast of Brazil
near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06S-
00N between 35W-40W and 03N-04N between 11W-14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is located in the east central Gulf near 25N83W.
Winds are quiescent today, being gentle breeze or weaker across
the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present within
100 nm of the Texas, Louisiana coast ahead of the cold front.
Elsewhere, fair weather conditions prevails across the basin.

High pres will prevail across the E Gulf through late Sat before
shifting eastward into the W Atlc. The next cold front is forecast
to enter the NW Gulf Sun. The front will reach from near the Florida
Big Bend to the SW Gulf Mon, and from S Florida to the SW Gulf Tue.
Gale conditions are possible over the SW Gulf W of the front Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient forced by 1031 mb Bermuda high near
31N45W and troughing over Colombia is producing generally moderate
to strong breeze tradewinds across the Caribbean. Winds are enhanced
up to near gale off of the Colombian coast, as observed by the
scatterometer pass. No significant deep convection is occurring
within the subsident environment of the Caribbean, though there
are scattered showers impacting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica.

Fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean will
diminish across all but the southern Caribbean tonight through
late Sun as weak high pressure ridge dominates the SW N Atlc.
Winds will freshen late on Mon as the ridge strengthens. Long
period NW to N swell will propagate through the tropical Atlantic
waters and the Caribbean Passages through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough that was present east of Florida previously has evolved
into a cold front and extends from 30N72W, across the NW Bahamas,
and to 23N80W in northern Cuba. Moderate scattered deep convection
exists within 180 nm of the front north of 28N. Scatterometer data
show SW winds to 30 kt ahead of the front, but only W-NW winds up
to 20 kt behind the front. Farther east a second cold front enters
our area at 31N36W and extends west-southwest to 28N41W, where it
transitions to a stationary front to 25N51W. Winds are moderate
breeze or weaker in association with this front. Scattered showers
are present within 90 nm of the front. Long period NW to N swell
of 10-18 ft is currently affecting waters from 20N-31N between
35W- 60W, highest north of 25N and between 40W-50W.

A cold front extends from 31N71W to 23N80W. The southern part of
the front will stall and dissipate while the northern part of the
front shifts eastward across the northern forecast waters. A
second low pressure system will develop off the SE U.S. coast
early Fri and move eastward through the weekend, clipping the
northern waters. Long period NW to N swell will propagate through
the tropical Atlantic waters east of 68W through Sat. A cold front
will move into the NW part of the forecast waters late Mon and
shift across the northern waters through Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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