[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 PM EST Thu Feb 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from West Africa near 07N12W to 02N17W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 00N43W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 00N-
03N between 20W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is located in the east central Gulf near 26N85W.
Winds are quiescent today, being gentle breeze or weaker across
the Gulf. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the Texas
coast in advance of a cold front. Patchy fog is also present in
the NW Gulf within 120 nm of the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

Weak high pres will prevail across the E Gulf through late Sat
before shifting eastward into the W Atlc. Areas of dense coastal
fog will prevail across the NW and N central portions this
morning. Fresh to locally strong return flow will develop Sat
night and Sun across the W Gulf ahead of the next cold front
forecast to enter the NW Gulf late Sun. The front will reach from
near the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf Mon afternoon. Fresh to
strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient forced by 1030 mb Bermuda high near
32N53W and troughing over Colombia is producing generally moderate
to strong breeze tradewinds across the Caribbean. Winds are
enhanced up to near gale off of the Colombian coast, as observed
by the latest scatterometer pass. No significant deep convection
is occurring within the subsident environment of the Caribbean,
though there are scattered showers impacting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean through this afternoon. Winds will diminish across all
but the southern Caribbean this afternoon through late Sun as a
weak high pressure ridge dominates the SW N Atlc, then freshen
late on Mon and the ridge strengthens. Long period NW to N swell
will propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters and the
Caribbean Passages today through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough that was present east of Florida previously has evolved
into a cold front and as of 1500 UTC the front extends from
32N72W, across the NW Bahamas, and to 23N83W south of the Florida
Keys. Moderate scattered deep convection exists within 60 nm of
the front north of 28N, while scattered showers are present within
60 nm of the front from 25N-28N. Latest scatterometer data show
SW winds to 30 kt ahead of the front, but only W-NW winds up to
20 kt behind the front. Farther east a second cold front enters
our area at 32N36W and extends west- southwest to 26N49W, where it
transitions to a stationary front to 25N60W. Winds are moderate
breeze or weaker in association with this front. Scattered showers
are present within 120 nm of the front. Long period NW to N swell
of 10-18 ft is currently affecting waters from 20N-31N between
35W-60W, highest north of 25N and between 40W-50W.

The cold front near the Bahamas will move eastward across the
northern forecast waters today and Friday. Fresh to strong
southerly winds on the east side of the front will affect the
northern forecast waters through tonight. A second low pressure
system will develop off the SE U.S. coast early Fri and move
eastward through the weekend, clipping the northern waters with
moderate westerly winds. Long period NW to N swell will propagate
through the tropical Atlantic waters east of 68W today through
Sat. A cold front will move into the NW part of the forecast
waters late Mon. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected ahead
of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
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