[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281120
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 AM EST Thu Feb 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from West Africa near 07N12W to 03N19W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 00N28W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from
01N-04N between 18W-34W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 210 nm of the coast of South America from
08S-01N. Isolated showers are from 03N-07N east of 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary/warm front is inland over the Florida
Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are inland over Alabama and E
Mississippi, enhanced by upper-level diffluence. Farther west, a
cold front extends from W Louisiana near 31N93.5W to near Beaumont
Texas to Houston Texas bending W to San Antonio Texas to 30N101W
as of 28/0900 UTC. Scattered showers are over southern and eastern
Texas, with isolated showers over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Dense
coastal fog prevails this morning along the Texas and western
Louisiana coasts as well as along portions of the middle Florida
Panhandle. A 1019 mb surface high is centered near 25N85W, leading
to quiet weather currently for the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pres will prevail across the E Gulf through late Sat
before shifting eastward into the W Atlc. Areas of dense coastal
fog will prevail across the NW and N central portions this
morning. Fresh to locally strong return flow will develop Sat
night and Sun across the W Gulf ahead of the next cold front
forecast to enter the NW Gulf late Sun. The front will reach from
near the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf Mon afternoon. Fresh to
strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air covers the Caribbean Sea. However, isolated trade wind
showers can be seen near Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the waters in
between Jamaica and Belize. Strong trades are over the central
Caribbean. Elsewhere S of 18N, fresh trades prevail. Moderate
winds are in the NW Caribbean N of 18N between Cuba and Jamaica.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean through this afternoon. Winds will diminish across all
but the southern Caribbean this afternoon through late Sun as a
weak high pressure ridge dominates the SW N Atlc, then freshen on
Mon as the ridge strengthens. Long period NW to N swell will
propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters and the Caribbean
Passages today through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N77W to a 1014 mb low near 29N78W
to 26N80W as of 28/0900 UTC. An upper-level trough extends its
axis from just offshore Georgia to over the Florida Peninsula to
the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper-level diffluence east of the upper-
trough axis is enhancing scattered moderate convection N of 28N
between 74W-77W. Elsewhere N of 28N between 72W-79W, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail. Isolated showers are
seen N of 26N between 68W-75W. Over the central Atlantic, a cold
front extends from 31N40W to 25N53W, and continues W as a
stationary front to 25N61W and as a dissipating stationary front
to 25N69W. Isolated showers are noted near the front. A 1031 mb
surface high is centered near 31N55W. Long period NW to N swell of
10-15 ft is currently affecting waters from 20N-31N between 35W-
60W, highest north of 25N and east of 55W.

Low pressure N of the NW Bahamas will shift NE and exit the area
late this morning, dragging a trailing trough eastward across the
northern waters behind it. Fresh to strong southerly winds on the
east side of the trough will affect the northern forecast waters
through tonight. A second low pressure system will develop off the
SE U.S. coast early Fri and move eastward through the weekend,
clipping the northern waters with moderate westerly winds. Long
period NW to N swell will propagate through the tropical Atlantic
waters east of 68W today through Sat. A cold front will move into
the NW part of the forecast waters late Mon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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