[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 AM EST Thu Feb 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from West Africa near 07N12W to 05N15W
to 04N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 00N28W to 03S40W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
from 00N-03N between 24W-28W. Elsewhere within 180 nm of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ, isolated moderate convection is noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf from a 1016 mb
low just east of Daytona Beach Florida to Apalachicola Florida to
Buras Louisiana and continues as a warm front to Lake Charles
Louisiana and into east Texas. No significant shower activity is
over the northern Gulf. The showers have moved northward and well
inland into the southern U.S. Patchy dense fog is observed over
the northwest Gulf waters near Texas and Louisiana.

High pres will build across the area and prevail through Sun.
Areas of dense fog will prevail across the NW and N central
portions of the Gulf this morning. Fresh to locally strong return
flow will develop Sat night and Sun across the W Gulf ahead of
the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sun. The front
will reach from near the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf Mon.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the 1029 mb Bermuda high and a low
near the Colombia/Venezuela border is producing strong breezes
over the central Caribbean with fresh winds over the eastern
Caribbean, as indicated by the latest ASCAT pass. Dry air and
strong subsidence cover the eastern two-thirds of the basin along
with upper-level ridging. Isolated showers are moving W with the
trade winds over the northeast Caribbean reaching Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean and Atlc passages through today. Winds will diminish
across all but the southern Caribbean from later today through
Mon as a weak high pressure ridge dominates the SW N Atlc. Long
period N to NE swell will propagate across the tropical Atlantic
waters and the Caribbean Passages through Sat night, then subside
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low is just east of Daytona Beach Florida. A stationary
front extends W from the low across N Florida and into the N Gulf
of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
N of 28N between the E coast of Florida and 75W. Scattered showers
are also over and E of the northwest Bahamas mainly N of 25N and W
of 70W. A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from
31N42W to 27N50W to 24N61W, then becomes stationary from that
point to 24N67W to 25N71W. Isolated showers are near and within
120 nm N of the frontal system W of 52W. E of 52W, isolated
showers are within 90 nm both sides of the front. Winds are fresh
to strong within 180 nm N of the front between 55W-68W. A 1029 mb
high is centered near 31N58W.

Low pressure N of the NW Bahamas will shift NE and exit the area
early today. Fresh to strong southerly winds on the east side of
the low will affect the northern forecast waters through late Thu.
A second low pressure system will develop off the SE U.S. coast
early Fri and move eastward through the weekend, clipping the
northern waters. A cold front will move into the NW part of the
forecast waters Mon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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