[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from West Africa near 06N10W to 03N14W
to 01N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03S24W to the
coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 03N-05N between 10W-15W. Isolated moderate
convection is along and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the SW coast of Louisiana near
30N93W to the S coast of Texas near 27N97W, then continues W over
S Texas as a cold front to 27N99W and turns NW through N Mexico to
30N102W. Moderate to fresh N winds are located between the front
and the coast of Texas. Scattered moderate rainshowers and
isolated thunderstorms cover the Gulf of Mexico NW of a line
extending from 23N98W to 29N83W, except along the immediate coast
of Texas west of the front. Although it is no longer raining along
the coast of Texas, an overcast cloud deck between 100 ft and 500
ft is causing areas of dense coastal fog and very low stratus. A
1019 mb surface high is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
near 28N84W.

The front over the NW Gulf of Mexico will slowly drift SE before
dissipating by Sat. The next cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf Sun. The front will reach from near the Florida Big Bend
to the SW Gulf Mon, and from S Florida to the SW Gulf Tue. Gale
conditions are possible over the SW Gulf W of the front Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient forced by a 1032 mb Bermuda high
near 32N39W and troughing over Colombia is inducing fresh trades
over the entire eastern and central Caribbean E of 78W. Strong
trades are in the south-central Caribbean, S of 15N between 65W-
76W. These fresh to strong trades are shown by a recent
scatterometer pass from Thursday evening. Moderate winds are over
the W Caribbean. Mid-upper level ridging and dry air cover the
eastern half of the Caribbean. Scattered clouds and isolated
showers are over the W Caribbean in between the western tip of
Jamaica and the NE coast of Honduras.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south central
Caribbean through Tue. Winds will freshen over the eastern
Caribbean late Mon into Tue. Long period NW to N swell will
propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters and the Caribbean
Passages through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front and extends from 31N69W to the NW Bahamas near
25N77W. Scattered showers exist within 120 nm of the front north
of 27N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also seen well to
the east of the front, over the area N of 26N between 55W-70W.
Scatterometer data show SW winds to 30 kt extending to 300 nm
ahead of the front N of 30N. Winds are at least fresh to strong N
of 29N between 55W and the front. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a high pressure ridge, anchored by a 1032
mb surface high near 32N39W. Long period NW to N swell of 10-15 ft
is currently affecting waters from 15N-31N between 35W-55W,
highest north of 25N and between 35W-50W. Swells of 5-10 ft cover
the area from 55W-65W.

The southern part of the cold front that extends from 31N69W to
the NW Bahamas will stall and dissipate while the northern part
of the front shifts eastward across the northern forecast waters.
Long period NW to N swell will propagate through the tropical
Atlantic waters east of 68W through Sat. A new cold front will
move into the NW part of the forecast waters late Mon and shift
across the northern waters through Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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