[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure building behind a cold front over the Gulf of
Mexico is forecast to briefly produce minimal gale-force winds S
of 20N to the west of the front beginning this evening at 24/0000
UTC and ending by 24/0600 tonight. At 0000 UTC, the front is
expected to extend from 28N83W to 23N87W to 21N92W to 18.5N92W.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1026 mb central Atlantic high
centered near 30N54W and a 1009 mb low over N Colombia is forcing
winds of near-gale force over the south-central Caribbean and
reaching gale force just north of Colombia mostly at night. These
overall conditions will continue through mid-week, with the gale
resuming this evening at 25/0000 UTC. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 11N15W to 05N21W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to near 00N27W to the coast of
South America near 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 01S to 04N between 31W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 24/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from central Florida near
29N82W to 24N90W to 20N94W and is then stationary across the Bay
of Campeche to near 18N94W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of
either side of the front. Mainly fresh to strong NE winds are
behind the front, except for strong to near gale-force S of 22N,
as confirmed by a recent ship report near Veracruz. The winds S
of 20N will further increase to gale- force briefly later this
evening. Refer to the special features section for more details.
Gentle to moderate southeast winds cover the southeast Gulf.

The cold front will gradually stall and weaken from the Florida
Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico tonight into Mon. The remnants of
the front will move northward Mon night and Tue and dissipate
across the NE Gulf of Mexico on Wed. Moderate to fresh return flow
will dominate the western Gulf of Mexico from Wed through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fair weather dominates the Caribbean with dry air
entrenched in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere. Only
patches of scattered showers can be found over the basin and are
moving W with the tradewinds. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover
the eastern and north-central Caribbean. Strong to near gale-
force trade winds cover the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to
locally fresh winds cover the western Caribbean.

High pressure between Hispaniola and Bermuda will shift east-
northeastward across the central Atlantic through Mon night, then
be replaced by stronger high pressure moving into the western
Atlantic Ocean behind a cold front Mon through Wed. This will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
Sea and the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. Strong
winds off the coast of Colombia will increase to gale force during
overnight hours through Wed night. Refer to the special features
section for more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over northern Florida is emerging just offshore of
Jacksonville. Fresh southwest winds are N of 27 within about 200
nm E of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 60 nm of either side of the front. High pressure of
1026 mb centered near 30N54W dominates much of the remainder of
the western and central Atlantic. Farther east, a cold front
enters the area of discussion near 31N30W and extends to 25N35W to
21N44W to 20N53W. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are
occurring within several hundred nm west and about 200 nm east of
the cold front N of 27N. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N24W
to 23N35W.

The high pressure ridge will shift east-northeastward to the
central Atlantic through Mon. The cold front will continue to
move off the NE Florida coast tonight and reach from Bermuda to
the Florida Keys by Mon morning, before stalling and weakening
along 26N through Tue night. High pressure behind the front will
shift eastward across the western Atlantic from Tue through Wed
night. A coastal trough will develop just offshore of the
southeastern U.S. Wed night through Thu night. Another cold front
will move off the NE Florida coast Wed night, and quickly move
across the northern waters through Fri night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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