[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure building behind a cold front over the Gulf of
Mexico is forecast to briefly produce minimal gale-force NW winds
S of 20N to the west of the front through tonight. Please refer
to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1026 mb central Atlantic high
centered near 29N53W and a 1006 mb low over N Colombia is forcing
winds of near-gale force over the south-central Caribbean and
reaching gale force just north of Colombia mostly at night. These
overall conditions will continue through mid-week, with the gale
resuming this evening at 25/0000 UTC. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 10N14W to 02N23W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of South America
near 02S39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N to 02S between 26W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from central Florida near 27N82W to 23N89W
to 20N93W and is then stationary across the Bay of Campeche to
near 18N93W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of either side of
the front. Mainly fresh to strong NE winds are behind the front.
The winds S of 20N will further increase to gale-force briefly
later this evening. Refer to the special features section for
more details.

The cold front will gradually stall and weaken from the Florida
Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico tonight into Mon. Gale force
northerly winds behind the front offshore of Veracruz will
continue through late tonight.The remnants of the front will move
northward Mon night and Tue and dissipate across the NE Gulf of
Mexico on Wed. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the
western Gulf of Mexico from Wed through Fri as high pressure from
the Atlantic builds westward across the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fair weather dominates the Caribbean with dry air
entrenched in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere. Only
patches of scattered showers can be found over the basin and are
moving W with the tradewinds. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover
the eastern and north-central Caribbean. Strong to near gale-
force trade winds cover the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to
locally fresh winds cover the western Caribbean.

High pressure between Hispaniola and Bermuda will shift east-
northeastward across the central Atlantic through Mon night, then
be replaced by stronger high pressure moving into the western
Atlantic Ocean behind a cold front Mon through Wed. This will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
Sea and the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. Strong
winds off the coast of Colombia will increase to gale force during
overnight hours through Wed night. Long period N to NE swell over
the Atlantic will gradually subside through Wed night before
another large set of long period NW to N swell propagates through
those same waters beginning on Thu. Refer to the special features
section for more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over northern Florida is emerging just offshore of
Daytona Beach. Fresh southwest winds are N of 27 within about 200
nm E of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 60 nm of either side of the front. High pressure of
1026 mb centered near 29N53W dominates much of the remainder of
the western and central Atlantic. Farther east, a cold front
enters the area of discussion near 31N26W and extends to 18N53W.
Fresh to occasionally strong winds are occurring within several
hundred nm west and about 200 nm east of the cold front N of 27N.

High pressure ridging extends from near 26N65W southwest to the
Florida Keys. The ridge will shift east-northeastward to the
central Atlantic by Mon evening. A cold front will move off the NE
Florida coast tonight and reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys
by Mon morning, before stalling and weakening along 26N through
Tuesday night. High pressure behind the front will shift eastward
across the western Atlantic from Tue through Wed night. A coastal
trough will develop just offshore of the southeastern U.S. Wed
night through Thu night. Another cold front will move off the NE
Florida coast Wed night, and quickly move across the northern
waters through Fri night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net