[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1248 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast on 24/2100 UTC to
extend from 28N83W to 23N87W to 21N92W to 18.5N92W. A Gale with NW
winds is forecast to be S of 20N W of front with seas 8 to 10 ft.
Winds are forecast to be below Gale on 25/0600 UTC. Please refer
to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1028 mb W Atlantic high
centered near 33N58W and a 1010 mb low over N Colombia near 10N76W
is forcing winds of near-gale force over the central Caribbean
and reaching gale-force just north of Colombia mostly at night.
These conditions will continue through mid-week. Presently, a Gale
is on going and will end shortly on 24/1800 UTC. The Gale will
resume on 25/0000 UTC. Please refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 11N15W to 06N21W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to near 02S30W to the coast of
South America near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the ITCZ from 03N-06S between 32W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 24/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from N florida near 30N84W
to 25N90W to 22N95W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N95W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm NW of the front. A prefrontal surface
trough is over the SW Gulf from 24N90W to 18N94W, depicted by a
windshift and void of convection. Fair weather is noted over the
SE Gulf.

The cold front will move southeastward, and gradually stall and
weaken from the Florida Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico, from
tonight into Monday. Gale force northerly winds are expected
behind the front offshore of Veracruz from this evening through
tonight. The remnants of the front will move northward, from
Monday night through Tuesday, and dissipate across the NE Gulf of
Mexico on Wednesday. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate
the W Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tradewinds dominate the Caribbean Sea ranging from Gale force
winds along the coast of N Colombia to 10 kt winds along the S
coast of Cuba. Patches of scattered showers are moving W with the
tradewinds mostly over the E Caribbean E of 70W. More scattered
showers are inland over Central America from Honduras to Panama.
In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over N
Colombia near 09N76W. Strong subsidence covers the entire
Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the central
Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras during the next several
days. Strong winds off the coast of Colombia will increase to gale
force during the nighttime hours from tonight through Wednesday
night. Long period N to NE swell, that has been affecting the
Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea Passages east of 65W, has peaked
and will subside slowly through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail end of a warm front is over the W Atlantic from 31N66W to
28N64W. A 1028 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 33N58W. A cold
front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N30W to 24N40W to
20N49W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm NW of the front.

Over the W Atlantic, the surface ridge will shift ENE to the
central Atlantic Ocean through Monday. A cold front will move off
the NE Florida coast tonight and reach from Bermuda to the Florida
Keys by Monday morning, before stalling and weakening along 26N
through Tuesday night. High pressure behind the front will shift
eastward across the W Atlantic Ocean from Tuesday through
Wednesday night. A coastal trough will develop just offshore of
the southeastern U.S. from Wednesday night through Thursday.
Another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast on Thursday
morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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