[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231102
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
602 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast today and reach the
western Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico by Sun morning. NW to
N gale force winds around 25 to 35 kts will be possible in the far
SW Gulf of Mexico with seas 8 to 12 feet from early Sun evening to
late Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb Bermuda High centered
near 28N67W and lower pressure north of Colombia is forcing winds
of near-gale force over the central Caribbean and reaching gale-
force just north of Colombia at night time. These conditions will
continue through Tuesday. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from a deep 958 mb low north of our area at
41N35W west-southwestward to 31N35W to 31N72W, then becomes a
stationary front to the coast of Georgia. The front will push
southeastward and bring SW gale-force winds ahead of the front
into our northeastern corner tonight. These conditions will be
short-lived as the strongest pressure gradient pulls northeastward
away from our area, and wind speeds should decrease to a strong
breeze by Saturday afternoon. Seas will peak at 22 ft under a NW
swell on Saturday, before diminishing on Sunday. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa reaching the east Atlantic
waters near 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to near
04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 400 nm north
and south of the ITCZ between 21W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 23N90W to 19N92W in the Bay of
Campeche. No significant convection is occurring in conjunction
with the trough. Scatterometer data indicates southeasterly gentle
to moderate across the basin with locally fresh winds north of
the Yucatan Peninsula in the Central Gulf of Mexico. Latest
observations report areas of fog along the coast of Texas and
Louisiana with multiple stations reporting 1 nm visibility and low
ceilings around 200 to 500 feet. The fog extends over the Gulf of
Mexico by up to 60 nm offshore of southern Texas and northeastern
Mexico.

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the N central
Gulf waters will weaken across the Gulf waters today as a cold
front moves off the Texas coast early this afternoon. The front
will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico
by Sun morning, before stalling and weakening from the Florida
Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico on Mon. The front will weaken on
Tue, as it moves northward as a warm front. Gale force winds are
expected west of the front in the far SW Gulf from early Sun
evening through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda 1025 mb High and
the Colombian low is forcing winds of near gale over the central
Caribbean and reaching gale just north of Colombia. No significant
deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean. See the Special
Features section above for details about the Gale conditions and
forecast discussion.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras
during the next several days. Winds will increase to gale force
along the coast of Colombia, through Wed. Long period north to
northeast swell will move through the Atlantic waters and
Caribbean Passages east of 65W through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front north of our area is producing gale-force winds
ahead of it into our northeastern corner today. See the Special
Features section above for more details.

Surface ridging extends across the Atlantic from 29N81W to a 1025
mb Bermuda high at 28N68W. Further east, A cold front extends from
a deep 958 mb low pressure to the north. A stationary front is
analyzed extending from 31N23W to 19N40W, then a surface trough
extends to 15N54W. Scattered showers are present within 180 nm
southeast of the cold front between 27W-42W. A trough is observed
near 26N16W to 20N17W.

A 1025 mb high pressure near 28N68W extends SE into the central
Atlc and will shift slowly southeastward through Sun ahead of a
cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast by late
Sun. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys by
Mon afternoon, before stalling and weakening along roughly 26N
through Tue night. High pressure north of the area will shift
eastward Tue through Wed night as a trough approaches the
southeastern U.S. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are
expected over much of the waters Tue through Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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