[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1223 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon and
reach the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico by Sun
morning. NW to N gale force winds around 25 to 35 kts will be
possible in the far SW Gulf of Mexico with seas 8 to 12 feet from
Sun evening through Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb Bermuda High centered
near 28N67W and lower pressure north of Colombia is forcing winds
of near-gale force over the central Caribbean and reaching gale-
force just north of Colombia at night time. These conditions will
continue through Wed. The present Gale will end on 23/1800 UTC,
and start again on 24/0300 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from a deep 959 mb low north of our area at
44N33W west-southwestward to 31N35W to 26N52W to 29N63W. The
front will push southeastward and bring SW gale-force winds ahead
of the front N of 29N until 23/1800 UTC. Seas will peak at 22 ft
under a NW swell on Saturday, before diminishing on Sunday. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa reaching the east Atlantic
waters near 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to near
04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 400 nm north
and south of the ITCZ between 21W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is inland over S Texas. Scatterometer data indicates
southeasterly gentle to moderate across the basin with locally
fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula in the Central Gulf of
Mexico. Latest observations report areas of fog lingering along
the coast of Texas and Louisiana. The fog extends over the Gulf
of Mexico by up to 90 nm offshore of southern Texas and
northeastern Mexico.

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the N
central Gulf waters will weaken across the Gulf waters today as a
cold front moves off the Texas coast early this afternoon. The
front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico,
Mexico by Sun morning, before stalling and weakening from the
Florida Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico on Mon. The front will
weaken on Tue, as it moves northward as a warm front. Gale force
winds are expected west of the front in the far SW Gulf from early
Sun evening through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda 1026 mb High and
the Colombian low is forcing winds of near gale over the central
Caribbean and reaching gale just north of Colombia. No significant
deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean. See the Special
Features section above for details about the Gale conditions and
forecast discussion.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras
during the next several days. Winds will increase to gale force
along the coast of Colombia, through Wed. Long period north to
northeast swell will move through the Atlantic waters and
Caribbean Passages east of 65W through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front north of our area is producing gale-force winds
ahead of it into our northeastern corner today. See the Special
Features section above for more details.

A 1026 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 28N68W.  Further east,
A cold front extends from a deep 959 mb low north of our area at
44N33W west-southwestward to 31N35W to 26N52W to 29N63W.
Scattered showers are present within 180 nm southeast of the cold
front between 27W-42W. A stationary front is over the E Atlantic
from 31N23W to 20N42W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front.

Over the W Atlantic, the surface high will shift slowly
southeastward through Sun night ahead of a cold front that will
move off the northeast Florida coast by late Sun. The front will
reach from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Mon afternoon,
before stalling and weakening along roughly 26N through Tue night.
High pressure north of the area will shift eastward Tue through
Wed night as a trough approaches the southeastern U.S. Fresh to
strong northeast to east winds are expected over much of the
waters Tue through Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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