[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast Saturday and reach
the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico by Sun morning.
NW to N gale force winds around 25 to 35 kts will be possible in
the far SW Gulf of Mexico with seas 8 to 12 feet from early Sunday
evening into late Sunday night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb Bermuda High centered
near 27N65W and lower pressure north of Colombia is forcing winds
of near-gale force over the central Caribbean and reaching gale-
force just north of Colombia at night time. These conditions will
continue through Tuesday. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from a deep 960 mb low north of our area at
40N38W west-southwestward to 30N49 to 30N65W, then becomes a
stationary front to the coast of Georgia. The front will push
southeastward and bring SW gale-force winds ahead of the front
into our northeastern corner tonight. These conditions will be
short-lived as the strongest pressure gradient pulls northeastward
away from our area, and wind speeds should decrease to a strong
breeze by Saturday afternoon. Seas will peak at 22 ft under a NW
swell on Saturday, before diminishing on Sunday. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa reaching the east
Atlantic waters near 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90
nm south of the ITCZ from 27W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends westward from a low pressure over
Georgia with a trough extending southward near 28N96W to 24N97W.
No significant convection is occurring in conjunction with the
trough. Dense fog continues along the coast of Texas and
Louisiana with multiple stations reporting 1/2 to 1/4 nm
visibility and low ceilings around 200 to 500 feet. The fog
extends over the Gulf of Mexico by up to 60 nm offshore of
southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. The fog is expected to
continue tonight. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds across the basin. A surface trough extends
from 22N89W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N91W. No significant
convection is observed near the trough.

High pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the eastern
and central Gulf waters will weaken and slide eastward through
Sat as a cold front moves off the Texas coast. The front will
reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico by Sun
morning, before stalling and weakening from the Florida Keys to
the SW Gulf of Mexico on Mon. The front will dissipate on Tuesday,
as it moves northward as a warm front. Gale force winds are
possible in the far SW Gulf from early Sun evening through late
Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the
Colombian low is forcing winds of near gale over the central
Caribbean and reaching gale just north of Colombia. No significant
deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean. See the Special
Features section above for details about the Gale conditions and
forecast discussion.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in mainly the central Caribbean Sea, and north of
Honduras during the next several days. Gale force winds will pulse
at night, and into the early morning near the coast of Colombia,
through Wed. Long period north to northeast swell will propagate
through the Atlantic Ocean waters east of the Lesser Antilles
through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front north of our area is producing gale-force winds
ahead of it into our northeastern corner tonight. See the Special
Features section above for more details.

Surface ridging extends across the Atlantic from 29N80W to a 1025
mb Bermuda high at 26N65W. A frontal system extends southeast of
the ridge. It is analyzed as a cold front from 31N44W to 30N65W,
then as a stationary front from that point to 31N80W. Further
east, a stationary front is analyzed from 31N21W to 19N40W, then a
surface trough extends to 15N53W. Scattered showers are present
within 180 nm southeast of the cold front between 27W-42W.

A high pressure ridge will shift southeastward through Sat night
in response to a cold front that will move off the northeast
Florida coast by late Sun. The front will reach from near Bermuda
to the Florida Keys by Mon afternoon, before stalling and
weakening along roughly 26N through Tue night. High pressure north
of the area will shift eastward Tue through Wed night as a trough
approaches the southeastern U.S. Fresh to strong northeast to
east winds are expected over much of the waters Tue through Wed
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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