[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Bermuda High centered
near 27N66W and lower pressures north of Colombian is forcing
winds of near-gale force over the central Caribbean and reaching
gale-force just north of Colombia at nighttime. These conditions
will continue through Tuesday.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from a deep 968 mb low north of our area at
40N43W west-southwestward to 32N57 to 33N72W, then becomes
stationary front to the coast of Georgia. The front will push
southeastward and bring SW gale-force winds ahead of the front
into our northeastern corner by tonight. These conditions will be
short-lived as the strongest pressure gradient pulls
northeastward away from our area, and wind speeds should decrease
to a strong breeze by Saturday afternoon. Seas will peak at 22 ft
under a NW swell on Saturday, before diminishing on Sunday.

For both of these Gale Warnings, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa reaching the east
Atlantic waters near 05N11W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to near 00S51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60
nm north of the ITCZ from 12W-16W and 20W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northwest Gulf from 28N97W
to 24N97W. No significant convection is occurring in conjunction
with the front. Dense fog continues along the coast of Texas and
Louisiana with multiple stations reporting 1/2 to 1/4 nm
visibility. The fog extends over the Gulf of Mexico by up to 60 nm
offshore of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. The fog is
expected to continue tonight. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate winds across the basin.

A cold front will move off the Texas coast on Saturday, reach
from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico by Sunday
morning, before stalling and weakening from the Florida Keys to
the SW Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The front will dissipate on
Tuesday, as it moves northward as a warm front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the
Colombian Low is forcing winds of near gale over the central
Caribbean and reaching gale just north of Colombia. No significant
deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean. See the Special
Features section above for details about the Gale conditions and
forecast discussion.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front north of our area will produce gale-force winds
ahead of it into our northeastern corner tonight. See the Special
Features section above for more details.

Surface ridging extends across the Atlantic from 29N80W to a 1026
mb Bermuda high at 27N66W to a 1019 mb high near 29N30W. A frontal
system extends southeast of the ridge. It is analyzed as a cold
front from 31N21W to 22N33W, then as a stationary front from that
point to 19N41W. A surface trough extends from 19N41W to 16N61W.
Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the cold front.
Winds are moderate breeze or weaker in association with this
frontal boundary.

Long period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic
waters east of the Lesser Antilles beginning tonight, before
dissipating from Sunday through Tuesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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