[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151150
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W and extends to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W. Scattered showers are
noted from 03N between 14W-21W and south from the Equator to 03S
between 22W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure is centered over northern Florida and
extends across the basin. Partly cloudy skies prevail with no
significant convection. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic
winds prevail across the basin.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through early Sunday,
maintaining moderate SE return flow over the western Gulf. The
next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun morning and
extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Sun
night as broad low pressure forms off Veracruz in the southwest
Gulf through Mon. The front will stall across the northern Gulf
waters through Tue morning, then lift northward across the
northern Gulf by late Tue as the low moves inland over northeast
Mexico and dissipates.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak low pressure is centered near the central Bahamas with a
stationary front extending southward into the NW Caribbean to
another low pressure near 17N82W. A remnant trough extends to the
south of the low pressure to 15N82W. An upper-level trough axis
extends from the western Atlantic across the NW Caribbean to
Guatemala. Just east of the upper trough axis, upper-level
diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection north of
20N. Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted. Moderate to
fresh trades currently cover the eastern and central Caribbean
mainly east of 73W while a gentle to moderate trades cover the
southern and NW Caribbean sea.

Weak low pressure between Grand Cayman Island and Swan Island
will dissipate early this morning, with a remnant trough persisting
through late today. Moderate to fresh winds over the central and
eastern Caribbean through Sat night will increase in the southern
Caribbean by early Sun due to high pressure building north of the
area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the south
central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Tue
night, with gale conditions possible off Colombia Sun night and
Mon night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters east of the Windward
and Leeward Islands will subside through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N62W to a
1014 mb low near 26N73W. A stationary front extends from the low
to another low over the central Bahamas near 23N75W. An upper-
level trough axis extends from the western Atlantic across the NW
Caribbean to Guatemala. Just east of the upper trough axis, upper-
level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection north
of 20N into the eastern Bahamas and western Atlantic mainly west
of 65W-75W. Scattered showers cover the area within 180 nm on
either side of the frontal system. Farther east, a 1030 mb high
is centered near 31N39W, and extends across most of the central
and eastern Atlantic. A cold front is analyzed from 31N13W to
21N29W to 20N38W to a dissipating cold front. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail behind this front.

A nearly stationary front extends from 31N62W to a 1014 mb low
pressure located near 26N73W to another low pressure near 23N75W.
The lows will likely merge then move north of the area through
tonight along the weakening front. The front will weaken to a
trough Sat, which will shift E of the area Sun ahead of a cold
front moving off the NE Florida coast late Mon. The front will
stall along 29N east of 75W into Tue, then lift northward Tue
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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