[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150702
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W and extends to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered showers
are noted along the monsoon trough between 16W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure is centered over northern Florida and
extends across the basin. Partly cloudy skies prevail with no
significant convection. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic
winds prevail across the basin.

Surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend,
producing mainly a southerly return flow. The next cold front
will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning and extend
from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Sun night.
Then, the front is forecast to stall across the northern Gulf
waters through Tue morning, lifting N toward the northern Gulf
states by late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak low pressure is off the east-central Cuba near 22N77W
with a stationary front extending south into the NW Caribbean
to another low pressure near 19N82W. A remnant trough extends to
the south of the low pressure to 15N69W. An upper-level trough
axis extends from the western Atlantic across the NW Caribbean to
Guatemala. Just east of the upper trough axis, upper-level
diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection north of 18N
along the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, no significant convection
is noted. Moderate to fresh trades currently cover the eastern and
central Caribbean mainly east of 73W while a gentle to moderate
trades cover the southern and NW Caribbean sea.

A weak low pressure area near 19N82W will dissipate tonight, with
a remnant trough prevailing through early Fri. Moderate to fresh
winds will dominate the central and eastern Caribbean waters
through Sat night. Winds and seas will then increase in the
southern Caribbean early on Sunday due to high pressure building
north of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected
along the coast of Colombia Sun night through Tue night, with gale
conditions possible on Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N66W to a
1014 mb low near 25N73W. A stationary front extends from the low
to 22N77W. An upper-level trough axis extends from the western
Atlantic across the NW Caribbean to Guatemala. Just east of the
upper trough axis, upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered
moderate convection north of 18N along the Windward Passage into
the central-eastern Bahamas and western Atlantic mainly west of
62W. Scattered showers cover the area within 180 nm on either
side of the frontal system, Farther east, a 1030 mb high is
centered near 31N45W, and extends across most of the central and
eastern Atlantic. A cold front is analyzed from 31N18W to 22N35W
to 22N44W to a dissipating cold front. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail behind this front.

The front associated with a 1014 mb low pressure located near NE
of the Bahamas will remain stationary on Fri. A second low further
south in the NW Caribbean will likely merge, with the predominant
low exiting the forecast area by Fri night. A trough, associated
with the low will persist over the NE waters through late Sat.
Then, a ridge will dominate the region through Mon. A cold front
is forecast to move off NE Florida by late Mon, and extend across
the waters N of 27N on Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net