[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W and extends to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered showers
are noted along the monsoon trough between 10W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered over northern Florida and
extends across the basin. Partly cloudy skies prevail with no
significant convection. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic
winds prevail across the basin.

Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend.
The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
evening and extend from the Florida Big Bend through Tampico,
Mexico by Mon afternoon. The front will then stall across the
northern gulf waters through Tue morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends across east-central Cuba and the NW
Caribbean from 21N78W to a 1013 mb low near 19N82W. An upper-
level trough axis extends from the Florida Peninsula to the NW
Caribbean to Guatemala. Just east of the upper trough axis,
upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection
north of 18N between 78W-82W. Elsewhere, no significant convection
is noted. Fresh to locally strong trades currently cover the
eastern and central Caribbean mainly east of 75W.

The weak low pressure area near 19N83W will dissipate tonight with
a remnant trough prevailing through Fri. Moderate to fresh winds
will dominate the central and eastern Caribbean waters through Sat
night. Winds and seas will then increase in the southern
Caribbean early on Sunday due to high pressure building north of
the area. Near-gale force winds are expected along the coast of
Colombia Sun night through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N65W to a
1014 mb low near 26N74W. A stationary front extends from the low
to 22N78W. Scattered showers cover the area within 240 nm west
and 60 nm east of the frontal system, from central Cuba to 31N,
including the central and northwest Bahamas. Farther east, a 1029
mb high is centered near 31N42W, and extends across most of the
central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front is analyzed from
31N18W to 25N25W to 22N45W. Fresh to strong winds prevail behind
this front.

The stationary portion of the front in the western Atlantic will
dissipate overnight leaving a remnant trough that will move
across the central and northern Bahamas through Fri. The low near
26N74W will move eastward through early Fri and the front will
stall north of 29N. Fresh to strong winds are expected northeast
of the Bahamas in the west and north semicircles of the low
through Fri morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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