[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through southern coastal Liberia, Africa
near 05N09W and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that
last location to 01N23W to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W.
Scattered showers are occurring from 05S to 02N between 22W and
32W. A surface trough is N of the ITCZ extending from 08N18W to
03N21W with scattered to isolated showers within 150 nm either
side of the trough axis.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Latest
scatterometer and surface data show light to gentle southerly
flow across the eastern half of the basin, and mainly moderate
southerly wind over the wester half of the gulf. Although dry air
subsidence is occurring throughout the gulf supporting fair
weather, a plume of shallow moisture is observed in the low-
levels LPW imagery. This plume is advecting moisture from the
tropical Pacific waters through the isthmus of Tehuantepec to the
NW Gulf of Mexico where fog and haze is being reported.

The ridge will prevail across the Gulf waters through early Sun,
maintaining moderate SE return flow over the western Gulf. The
next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun and extend
from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by early Mon as
broad low pres forms off Veracruz in the SW Gulf through Mon. The
front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through Tue
morning, then lift NW across the northern Gulf by late Tue as the
low moves inland over NE Mexico and dissipates. The front will
then attempt to push slightly eastward again by mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level trough extends from the SW N Atlc to a
base over the western half of the Caribbean. The upper trough
continue to support a surface trough extending from the Cayman
Islands to the coast of SE Nicaragua, and a dissipating
stationary front that extends from a low in the southern Bahamas
to eastern Cuba and across Jamaica. Diffluent flow to the east of
the trough aloft supports broken skies and isolated showers across
the Windward Passage, Hispaniola and the Mona Passage.

Both the surface trough and the weakening stationary front will
dissipate through the afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds are over
the central and eastern Caribbean and will continue through Sat
night. However, winds will increase in the southern Caribbean by
early Sun due to high pres building N of the area. Strong to
near gale force winds are expected over the S central Caribbean
and Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Tue night, with gale
conditions possible off Colombia Sun night and Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough over the SW N Atlc supports a
complex frontal system extending as a warm front from 31N62W SW to
a 1014 mb low near 26N70W then as a cold front SW to a second 1014
mb low located just SW of the southern Bahamas. Low level moisture
inflow from the Caribbean into this system supports scattered
showers and isolated tstms N of 20N between 60W and 73W. Two weak
troughs, one ahead and another following the frontal system,
enhance this area of convection. The remainder central and eastern
Atlc is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high
near 30N37W.

The front will slowly push E of the area through Sat night. A new
cold front will move across the waters N of 29N early Sun,
pushing E of 65W by early Mon. Another cold front will move across
the waters N of 29N Mon afternoon, pushing E of 65W by early Tue.
Return flow under ridging will prevail Tue afternoon and night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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