[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...West Central Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

High pres will shift E ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf
early Tue. Strong northerly 25 to 35 kts wind with seas up to 8
ft will follow the front, reaching minimal gale force offshore of
Mexico Tue afternoon and the SW Gulf Tue night. Northerly winds
will diminish Wed afternoon as the front pushes SE of the basin.
Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night through Tue
night across the south-central Caribbean, just off the coast of
Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, with seas to 13 ft.
Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website for more details
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W and extends to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from
02N17W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 00N to 05N between 12W and 20W
and scattered showers 280 nm SE of the ITCZ between 20W-24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb low is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N96W.
A dissipating stationary front extends south from the low to the
Bay of Campeche near 19N96W. Overcast low stratus clouds cover
the far western Gulf west of the front and north of the front off
the coasts of Mexico, Texas and western Louisiana. In some of
these areas, where light showers are occurring off the coast of
Texas, visibilities of 1 to 2 miles are being reported. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds are over the Gulf to east of the western
Gulf dissipating stationary front. Gentle to moderate winds are
to the west of this front.

A frontal boundary extending from weak 1017 mb low pres along the
Texas coast near 28.5N96W to the SW Gulf near 20N96W will dissipate
tonight. High pres will build across the northern Gulf coast Mon,
shifting E ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf early Tue.
Strong northerly winds will follow the front, reaching minimal
gale force across the W central Gulf Tue afternoon. See Special
Features above fore more details on the Gale Warning. Winds will
diminish Wed afternoon as the front pushes SE of the basin. High
pres and return flow will prevail across the basin Thu and Thu
night. Another cold front may move across the basin Fri and Fri
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively dry air covers most of the Caribbean basin. However,
isolated low-topped showers continue across much of the basin.
Scatterometer passes show fresh to strong northeast winds in the
Windward passage and south of Hispaniola. Strong to gale force
winds are occurring near northern Colombia coast. Moderate to
fresh trade winds are elsewhere over the Caribbean basin.

High pres NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades
across the central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at night NW of
the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Trades will weaken
slightly by mid week as the High weakens due to an approaching
cold front from the NW. The front will stall near the Yucatan
Channel early Wed before dissipating. Fresh to strong trades will
be confined to the S central Caribbean for the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N43W to 26N69, continuing as a
stationary front to near Melbourne Florida. Scattered showers
are in the vicinity of the stationary front. Isolated showers
with overcast low stratus clouds are elsewhere along and N of the
cold fronts. Farther E, an stationary front is 31N27W to 23N39W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.

A stalling front along 27N will dissipate through tonight. High
pres building N of the area will support moderate to fresh E to SE
winds through mid week, with strong winds pulsing each night off
the coast of Hispaniola through Tue night. NE swell in excess of 8
ft E of the Bahamas will subside by early Tue. Southerly winds
will increase off NE Florida by late Tue ahead of a cold front
moving off the Florida coast Tue night. The front will reach from
Bermuda to N central Cuba Wed night, dissipating over the SE
waters Thu and Thu night. Return flow under high pres will prevail
for the end of the week ahead of the next possibly strong cold
front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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