[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111115
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...West Central Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

High pres will shift E ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf
early Tue. Strong northerly 25 to 35 kts wind with seas up to 8
ft will follow the front, reaching minimal gale force offshore of
Mexico Tue afternoon and the SW Gulf Tue night. Northerly winds
will diminish Wed afternoon as the front pushes SE of the basin.
Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night through Tue
night across the south-central Caribbean, just off the coast of
Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, with seas to 13 ft.
Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website for more details
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W and extends to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W
to the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is present from 02S-02N between 10W and 23W and
more scattered shower activity elsewhere along the ITCZ near Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb low is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 29N96W.
A surface trough extends south from the low to near South Texas
near 25N97W. Overcast low stratus clouds cover the far western
Gulf with areas of fog along the Texas coast and western Louisiana.
In some of these areas, where light showers are occurring off the
coast of Texas, visibilities of 1 to 2 miles are being reported.
Gentle to moderate winds are across the basin. A surface trough
is also observed along the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N90W to 18N91W.
No significant convection is noted with this trough.

High pres will build across the northern Gulf coast Mon, shifting
E ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf early Tue morning.
Strong northerly winds will follow the front, reaching minimal
gale force across the W central Gulf Tue afternoon. See Special
Features above for more details on the Gale Warning. Winds will
diminish Wed afternoon as the front pushes SE of the basin. High
pres and return flow will prevail across the basin Thu and Thu
night. Another cold front will move into the northern Gulf Fri
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively dry air covers most of the Caribbean basin. However,
isolated low-topped showers continue across much of the basin.
Scatterometer passes show fresh to strong northeast winds in the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. Strong to gale force
winds are occurring near northern Colombia coast. Moderate to
fresh trade winds are elsewhere over the Caribbean basin.

High pres NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades
across the central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at night NW of
the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Trades will weaken
slightly on WEd as an approaching cold front weakens the ridge.
The front will stall near the Yucatan Channel early Wed, then
siddipate. Fresh to strong trades will be confined to the S
central Caribbean for the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N39W to 26N70W, continuing as a
dissipating stationary front to near Melbourne Florida. Isolated
showers with overcast low stratus clouds are in the proximity of
both boundaries. Farther E, a stationary front is 31N27W to
22N39W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front.

A stalling front along 26N-27N will gradually dissipate through
tonight. High pres building N of the area will support moderate to
fresh E to SE winds through Wed, with locally strong winds
pulsing each night off the coast of Hispaniola through Tue night.
NE swell in excess of 8 ft E of the Bahamas will subside by early
Tue. Southerly winds will increase off NE Florida by late Tue
ahead of a cold front moving off the Florida coast Tue night. The
front will reach from Bermuda to N central Cuba Wed night,
dissipating over the SE waters Thu and Thu night. Return flow
under high pres will prevail for the end of the week ahead of the
next possibly strong cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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