[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night through Tue
night across the south-central Caribbean, just off the coast of
Colombia, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, with seas to 13 ft.
Th next gale is forecast to start on 11/0000 UTC and end on
11/1800 UTC. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W and extends to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from
02N18W to 01N30W to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 01S to 05N between 06W and
22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 10/2100 UTC, a 1018 mb low is centered over the NW Gulf of
Mexico near 28N86W. A stationary front extends south from the low
to the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. Overcast low stratus clouds
cover the far western Gulf west of the front and north of the
front off the coasts of Mexico, Texas and western Louisiana. In
some of these areas, where light showers are occurring off the
coast of Texas, visibilities of 1 to 2 miles are being reported.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida and
the SE Gulf S of 27N and E of 90W. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds are over the Gulf to east of the western Gulf stationary
front. Gentle to moderate winds are to the west of this front.

The frontal boundary over the W Gulf of Mexico will weaken
tonight. High pressure builds across the northern Gulf coast Mon
shifting E ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf early Tue.
Strong to near gale force winds will follow the front Tue into
early Wed possibly reaching gale force off Veracruz, Mexico Tue
night. Winds will then diminish starting Wed afternoon as the
front pushes SE of the basin. High pres and return flow will
prevail across the basin Thu and Thu night. Another cold front may
move across the basin Fri and Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively dry air covers most of the Caribbean basin. However,
isolated low-topped showers continue across much of the basin.
Scatterometer passes show fresh to strong northeast winds in the
Lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola. Strong to near gale force
winds are occurring near the northern Colombia coast. Moderate to
fresh trade winds are elsewhere over the Caribbean basin.

High pressure NE of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trades across the central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force at
night NW of the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Trades will
weaken slightly by mid week as the High weakens due to an
approaching cold front from the NW. The front will stall near the
Yucatan Channel early Wed before dissipating. Fresh to strong
trades will be confined to the S central Caribbean for the end of
the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N50W to 27N70W to 27N73W, continuing
as a stationary front to near Melbourne Florida. Scattered showers
are along and within 120 nm N of the stationary front. Isolated
showers with overcast low stratus clouds are elsewhere along and
N of the cold fronts. Farther E, an occluded low is just N of the
area near 33N32W. An associated cold front extends from 31N28W to
27N30W to 24N40W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen N of 29N
between 27W and 31W due to enhanced upper-level forcing and
moisture from the nearby low pressure system.

Over the W Atlantic, a stationary front N of the Bahamas will
dissipate tonight. High pressure building N of the area will
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds through mid week, with
strong winds pulsing each night off the coast of Hispaniola
through Tue night. NE swell in excess of 8 ft E of the Bahamas
will subside by early Tue. Southerly winds will increase off NE
Florida by late Tue ahead of a cold front moving off the Florida
coast Tue night. The front will reach from Bermuda to N central
Cuba Wed night, dissipating over the SE waters Thu and Thu night.
Return flow under high pres will prevail for the end of the week
ahead of the next possibly strong cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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