[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EST Sat Feb 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

As of 0900 UTC, a stationary front extends across the Gulf of
Mexico from Sarasota Florida to a 1020 mb low near 22N96W to
18N94W. Gale force winds and seas 11-14 ft are in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico S of 21N and W of the front. These conditions
will continue through 1200 UTC this morning. Please read the High
Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night during the
weekend and early next week across the south-central Caribbean,
just off the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 73W and
77W. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 00N28W
to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 00N-04N between 11W-17W and from 02S-03N between 35W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Sarasota
Florida to a 1020 mb low near 22N96W to 18N94W. The gales in the
SW Gulf of Mexico are forecast to end around 1200 UTC this
morning. Refer to the section above for details. A surface trough
extends from the low northward to 27N96.5W. Scattered showers are
along this trough. Isolated showers are elsewhere in the Gulf
along and N of the front.

Strong winds south of 25N west of the weakening front will
persist through this evening. The remnants of the front will then
linger as a trough in the western Gulf through Sun morning.
Moderate to locally fresh return flow will develop across most of
basin Mon ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf Tue
morning. Fresh to near gale force winds will follow this second
front forecast to move out of the basin Wed morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Refer
to the section above for details. An upper-level trough extends
from an upper-level low near 20N62W to Hispaniola. A surface
trough extends from 22N61W to 18N62.5W to 13N63W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail across the Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the adjacent
waters of the northeast Caribbean. Isolated showers are seen N of
18N between 74W-83W

Strong high pressure building across the western Atlantic through
Tue will maintain strong tradewinds across the S central
Caribbean, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of
Colombia each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong trades
will expand to most of the central and NW basin today through Wed
morning, including the Windward Passage and waters in the lee of
Cuba tonight through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N77.5W and extends
SW to Cape Canaveral Florida to Sarasota Florida. Isolated showers
are seen along the front. A surface high pressure ridge lies over
the W Atlantic to the E of the front, anchored by a 1025 mb high
near 31N65W. To the east, a cold front passes through 31N38W to
27N45W to 26N52W, then continues as a weakening stationary front
from 26N52W to 24N61W. Scattered showers are seen near the front.
A surface trough extends from 22N61W to 18N62.5W to 13N63W. An
upper level trough axis extends from 31N39W to an upper-level low
near 19N62W to Hispaniola. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are seen from 17N-23N between 55W-64W. Scattered showers are over
and north of Puerto Rico. In the far E Atlantic, an upper-level
low near 24N21W is enhancing scattered moderate convection from
20N-27N, east of 19W.

The cold front that extends from 31N77.5W to Cape Canaveral
Florida will reach from 30N65W SW to Melbourne, Florida tonight
and become stationary Sun afternoon along 27N to near Fort
Pierce, Florida. Strong high pressure will build across the
western Atlantic behind the front, producing a large area of
strong to near gale force NE to E winds and high seas over the
waters N and NE of the Bahamas today through Sun night. Winds and
seas will slowly subside Sun night through Mon as the front drifts
S and dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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