[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 PM EST Sat Feb 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Strong NE winds and 8 to 12 ft seas follow a cold front reaching
from 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral Florida. Strong gusts also
accompany the front, as cooler air north of the front flows over
the relatively warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. A gale warning
is in effect through today for frequent gusts to gale force
north of 29N within 60 nm of the coast of northeast Florida.
Winds and seas will diminish through tonight as the front moves
eastward and weakens. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our
website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more
details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night during the
weekend and early next week across the south-central Caribbean,
just off the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 73W and
75W, with seas to 11 ft. The next gale is forecast to start on
10/0000 UTC. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to
01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N-04N between 11W-17W and from 02S-03N
between 35W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to 24N95W to
the Bay of Campeche near Coatzacoalcos Mexico. The gales in the SW
Gulf of Mexico have ended this morning. A surface trough extends
over the NW Gulf from 29N93W to 25.5N96W. Scattered showers are
along this trough. Isolated showers are elsewhere in the Gulf
along and N of the front.

Strong winds west of the front along the Mexican coast will
diminish through tonight as the front dissipates. Winds and seas
will continue to diminish through early next week as a ridge
builds over the northern Gulf coast. The ridge will shift east
ahead of a cold front entering the northwest Gulf Mon night.
Strong winds will follow the front Tue into Wed, diminishing
starting late Wed as the front stalls from the southeast Gulf to
Tampico Mexico. The front will dissipate Wed night as it moves
northward as warm front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is forecast for the south-central Caribbean. Refer
to the section above for details. A surface trough is over the
Leeward Islands from 20N63W to 14N64W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the trough. Elsewhere, scattered showers are
over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the NW Caribbean, and over
Central America from Belize to Panama.

Strong high pressure building across the western Atlantic through
Tue will maintain strong tradewinds across the S central
Caribbean, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of
Colombia each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong trades will
expand to most of the central and NW basin through Wed morning,
including the Windward Passage and waters in lee of Cuba tonight
through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to Melbourne
Florida. Scattered showers are along and N of the front. A
surface high pressure ridge lies over the W Atlantic to the E of
the front, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 35N48W. A cold front
is over the E Atlantic from 31N35W to 27N40W to 24N51W. Scattered
showers are within 75 nm of the front. In the far E Atlantic, an
upper-level low near 24N21W is enhancing scattered moderate
convection from 20N-27N, east of 19W.

The W Atlantic cold front will continue to move east and reach
from Bermuda to Cape Canaveral tonight, before stalling then
dissipating along 28N through Sun. High pressure building north of
the area will support fresh E to SE winds through the middle of
next week, with strong winds pulsing each night off the coast of
Hispaniola. NE swell in excess of 8 ft east of the Bahamas will
subside by late Mon. Southerly winds will increase off northeast
Florida by late Tue ahead of another cold front moving off the
Florida coast Tue night. The second front will reach from Bermuda
to South Florida by late Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
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