[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1217 AM EST Sat Feb 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Tampa Bay
Florida to a 1018 mb low near 22N96W and continues as a stationary
front to 18N94W. An 09/0324 UTC ASCAT pass confirms that gale
force winds are S of 24N and W of the front. Altimeter data shows
seas to 13 ft in the SW Gulf. These conditions will continue
through early this morning. Please read the High Seas Forecast,
listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit
our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more
details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night during the
weekend and early next week across the south-central Caribbean,
just off the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 73W and
77W. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 00N27W to
the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 02S-03N between 37W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Tampa Bay
Florida to a 1018 mb low near 22N96W and continues as a
stationary front to 18N94W. A Gale Warning is currently in effect
for the southwest Gulf waters, west of the front and south of 24N.
Refer to the section above for details. Scattered showers are
along and behind the front.

The front is expected to stall from near Sarasota Florida to
25N96W to the central Bay of Campeche this morning. Gale force
winds south of 24N west of the front will persist through early
this morning. Remnants of the front will linger as a trough in
the western Gulf along 95W-96W this weekend. Moderate to fresh
return flow will develop across most of basin Mon before the next
cold front moves into the NW Gulf on Tue. That next front will
shift across the basin through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Refer
to the section above for details. An upper-level trough extends
from an upper-level low near 21N62W across Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. A surface trough extends from 21N61W across the
northern Leeward Islands to 14N63W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms prevail across the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and adjacent waters of the
northeast Caribbean.

Strong high pressure building across the western Atlantic through
this weekend will maintain strong tradewinds across the S central
Caribbean, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of
Colombia each night through Tue night. Fresh to strong trades will
expand to most of the basin today through early Mon and include
the Windward Passage and waters in the lee of Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N80W and extends SW
to Daytona Beach Florida to Tampa Bay Florida to the SW Gulf of
Mexico. No convection is noted with the front. A surface high
pressure ridge lies over the W Atlantic to the SE of the front,
anchored by a 1025 mb high near 31N70W. To the east, a cold
front passes through 31N41W and extends to a 1018 mb low near
23N60W. A surface trough extends from the low south-southwestward
across the Leeward Islands and into the E Caribbean. An upper
level trough axis extends from 31N42W to an upper-level low near
21N62W to Hispaniola. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
from 19N-24N between 55W-62W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over and north of Puerto Rico. In the far E
Atlantic, an upper-level low near 24N23W is enhancing scattered
moderate convection from 20N-25N, east of 20W.

The cold front that extends from 31N80W to Daytona Beach Florida
will reach from 31N62W to Cape Canaveral by this evening, then
become nearly stationary E to W along 26N by Sun evening. Strong
high pressure will build across the western Atlantic behind the
front, producing a large area of strong NE to E winds and high
seas over the waters N and NE of the Bahamas Sat through early
Sun. The highest seas of 10-14 ft are expected N of 27.5N between
75W-80W late this afternoon through Sun morning. Winds and seas
will slowly subside Sun through Mon as the front drifts S and
dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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