[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from 30N83W to
24N94W to 20N97W. Gale-force winds are noted in scatterometer data
northwest of the front. Seas in this area are expected to range
between 8 and 14 ft. These conditions will continue through
Saturday morning. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under
the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force each night during the
weekend across the south-central Caribbean, just off the coast of
Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 73W and 77W. Please read the
High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W, to the
Equator along 28W/29W, to 01S38W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from the Equator to 01S between 42W and 45W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm
on either side of the line that runs from the Equator along 17W,
to 02N21W, to 01N29W, to 01S39W, to 01S41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from 30N83W to
24N94W to 20N97W. A Gale Warning is currently in effect for the
northwest Gulf waters. Refer to the section above for details.
Scattered showers are expected along the front. Surface ridging
prevails elsewhere.

The front is expected to stall from Sarasota, FL to 25N96W, to
the central Bay of Campeche on Saturday morning. Remnants of the
front will linger as a trough in the western Gulf of Mexico along
95W/96W during this weekend. Moderate to fresh return flow will
develop across most of basin on Monday, before the next cold front
moves into the northwest Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Refer
to the section above for details. An upper-level trough extends
from an Atlantic, across the northeast Caribbean, then towards
Nicaragua/Honduras border. The trough is forecast to continue in
the same place through the next 24 hours. Showers are noted across
the Greater Antilles and adjacent waters.

Strong high pressure building across the western
Atlantic through the weekend will maintain strong tradewinds
across the S central Caribbean, pulsing to minimal gale force
near the coast of Colombia each night through early next week.
Fresh to strong trades will expand to most of the basin through
early Monday and include the Windward Passage and waters in lee
of Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails across the west Atlantic, centered near
30N72W. To the east, a cold front passes through 31N43W to
28N50W to a 1017 mb low pressure near 25N60W. A shear line extends
from the low to 21N71W. Scattered showers are from 20N to 25N
between 55W and 61W.

The next cold front will enter the west Atlantic waters tonight,
and reach from 31N62W to Cape Canaveral by Saturday evening, then
become nearly stationary along 26N by Sunday evening. Strong high
pressure will build across the western Atlantic behind the front,
producing a large area of strong easterly winds and high seas
over the waters northeast of the Bahamas through the weekend.
Winds and seas will slowly subside by early next week as the
front drifts south and dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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