[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front is cutting through the Gulf of Mexico, along a NE-
to-SW oriented line, from Apalachicola, FL to Tuxpan in Mexico.
Expect gale-force winds from 24.5N southward from the cold front
westward. The sea heights will be reaching 9 feet. The position of
the cold front tonight, on Friday night, will be along the line
from 29N82.5W to 25N90W to 24N96W to 18N95W. Expect gale-force
NW-to-N winds S OF 20.5N W of the front, with sea heights ranging
from 8 feet to 12 feet. The wind speeds will slow down, to less
than gale-force, by Saturday morning. Please read the High Seas
Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2,
for more details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Expect NE winds to pulse to gale-force, each night, during the
weekend, and into early next week, across the south central
Caribbean Sea, just off the coast of Colombia, generally from 10N
to 13N between 73W and 77W. Please read the High Seas Forecast,
listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit
our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W, to the
Equator along 28W/29W, to 01S38W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from the Equator to 01S between 42W and 45W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm
on either side of the line that runs from the Equator along 17W,
to 02N21W, to 01N29W, to 01S39W, to 01S41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is cutting through the Gulf of Mexico, along a NE-
to-SW oriented line, from Apalachicola, FL to Tuxpan in Mexico.
Rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line that runs
from 30N83W to 26N90W to 23N95W to 19N96W, and elsewhere from 24N
southward from 90W westward.

The cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near the
Chivela Pass in southern Mexico this afternoon, and then stall
from Sarasota, FL to 25N96W, to the central Bay of Campeche on
Saturday morning. Gale-force winds are expected south of 24N west
of the front through early Saturday. Remnants of the front will
linger as a trough in the western Gulf of Mexico along 95W/96W
during this weekend. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop
across most of basin on Monday, before the next cold front moves
into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is passing through 19N64W, just outside the
NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 15N70W, to the east central
coastal sections of Nicaragua. The GFE model forecasts the trough
to be stationary for much of the next 24 hours. It is possible
that the trough may shift northward a bit, and reach the area of
the Gulf of Honduras, before weakening and dissipating by Saturday
night. Rainshowers are possible in most areas, in scattered to
broken low level clouds, except for the areas that are from 13N
southward from 76W eastward.

Strong surface high pressure, building across the western
Atlantic Ocean through the weekend, will induce strong trade winds
across the S central Caribbean Sea. The winds will pulse to
minimal gale force near the cost of Colombia each night through
Tuesday night. Fresh to strong trade winds will expand to most of
the basin, from Saturday through early Monday, and include the
Windward Passage and the waters in the lee of Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N43W, to 27N50W, to a 1017 mb low
pressure center that is near 25N59W. A surface trough extends from
the 1017 mb low pressure center to 17N62W in the NE Caribbean Sea
islands, near Antigua and Barbuda. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 18N to 26N between 54W and
62W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 26N
northward between 30W and 56W.

A cold front will enter the NW waters tonight, and reach from
31N62W to Cape Canaveral Florida by Saturday evening. The front
will become nearly stationary E to W along 26N by Sunday evening.
Strong high pressure will build across the western Atlantic Ocean
behind the front, producing a large area of strong NE to E winds
and high seas in the waters N and NE of the Bahamas from Saturday
through early Sunday. The winds and the seas will subside slowly
from Sunday through Monday, as the front drifts S and dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net