[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081115
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends across the Gulf from the
western Florida Panhandle near 31N86W to 26.5N91W to 25N95W to
22N98W. Near gales with frequent gusts to gale force are
occurring over portions of the western Gulf of Mexico west of the
front. By this afternoon, the front will extend from the Florida
Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche. Expect for gale force winds to
develop from 22N to 25N west of the front later this morning. Gale
force winds will develop S of 22N and W of 95W by early this
evening. Sea heights will range from 9 to 13 ft late this
afternoon through tonight in the SW Gulf S of 25N and W of 96W,
and from 8 to 10 ft elsewhere. These conditions will gradually
subside on Sat. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under
the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale force winds are forecast to pulse each night through the
weekend and into early next week across the south central
Caribbean, just off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between
73W and 77W. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is currently in effect for the western Gulf behind
a cold front, which extends from 31N86W to 22N98W as of 0900 UTC.
Refer to the section above for details. Scattered light showers
are seen along and behind the cold front over the NW Gulf.

The cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will reach from the Florida
Big Bend to near the Chivela Pass, Mexico this afternoon, then
will stall and become diffuse overnight. Gale force winds are
expected south of 24N west of the front through early Sat.
Remnants of the front will linger as a trough in the western Gulf
this weekend. A second cold front is expected to move into the NW
Gulf on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean
offshore of Colombia. Refer to the section above for details. A
sharp upper-level trough axis extends from the Atlantic near
29N55W to an upper-level low near 23N60W, across the Dominican
Republic, to the NE coast of Honduras. The trough is forecast to
continue in the same place through this evening. Isolated showers
are noted across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and
adjacent waters.

Strong high pressure building across the western Atlantic through
the weekend will induce strong trade winds across the S central
Caribbean, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of
Colombia each night through Tue night. A large area of fresh to
strong trades encompassing most of the basin through early Mon
will include the Windward Passage and S of Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface high pressure ridge prevails across the west Atlantic.
A 1018 mb surface low is near 28N60W. A surface trough extends
from this low to 24N65W. Isolated showers are noted near the low
and trough. East of that, a cold front enters the area near 31N47W
and extends to a 1018 mb low near 23.5N59W. A surface trough is
analyzed just south of the low, extending from 21N59W to 16N62W.
A sharp upper-level trough axis is practically aligned with the
surface front, and extends from near 29N55W, to an upper-level
low near 23N60W, to the Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 19N-26N between 55W-60W, and N of 28N
along and within 180 nm ahead of the cold front.

A cold front will move over the NW waters tonight, and reach from
31N67W to Cape Canaveral by early Sat. Strong high pressure will
build across the western Atlantic behind the front, producing a
large area of strong NE to E winds and high seas over the waters N
and NE of the Bahamas Sat and Sat night. Winds and seas will
subside Sun and Mon as the front dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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