[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends across the Gulf from 30N90W
to 25N98W. Frequent gusts to gale force are occurring west of the
front, and a 08/0238 UTC ASCAT pass suggests that a small area of
gale force winds has developed from 26N-28N between 94W-96W. By
this afternoon, the front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to
the Bay of Campeche. Expect for gale force winds to develop from
22N to 25N west of the front later this morning. Gale force winds
will develop S of 22N and W of 95W by early this evening. Sea
heights will range from 9 to 13 ft late this afternoon through
tonight in the SW Gulf S of 25N and W of 96W, and from 8 to 10 ft
elsewhere. These conditions will gradually subside on Sat. Please
read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale force winds are forecast to pulse each night through the
weekend and into early next week across the south central
Caribbean, just off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N between
73W and 77W. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is currently in effect for the western Gulf behind
a cold front, which extends from 30N90W to 25N98W as of 0300 UTC.
Refer to the section above for details. Scattered light showers
are seen along and behind the cold front over the NW Gulf, with
isolated thunderstorms developing inland over NE Mexico. A
surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Bay of Campeche with
no convection noted. The western Atlantic subtropical ridge
extends into the NE Gulf, but this ridge will soon be retreating
as the cold front approaches.

The cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will reach from the Florida
Big Bend to near the Chivela Pass, Mexico this afternoon, then
will stall and become diffuse tonight into early Sat. Remnants of
the front will linger in the western Gulf as a trough through Sun
night with return flow prevailing again through Mon night. The
next cold front may move into the NW Gulf Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean
offshore of Colombia. Refer to the section above for details. A
sharp upper-level trough axis extends from the Atlantic near
31N51W, to an upper-level low near 23N60W, across the Dominican
Republic, to the NE coast of Honduras. The trough is forecast to
continue in the same place through the next 24 hours. Isolated
showers are noted across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola and adjacent waters.

Weak high pressure over the W Atlantic will be replaced by
stronger high pressure building across the western Atlantic later
today into the weekend. This pattern will induce strong tradewinds
across the S central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force off of
Colombia each night through Tue night. The fresh to strong trades
will expand in coverage later today through early Mon to include
the Windward Passage and the waters in the lee of Cuba, then
begin to diminish late Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails across the west Atlantic, anchored by a
1024 mb high near 32N71W. A 1018 mb surface low is near 29N59W. A
surface trough extends from this low to the SE Bahamas. Isolated
showers are noted near the low and trough. East of that, a cold
front enters the area near 31N48W to 25N56W to a 1018 mb low near
24N60W. A weakening stationary front extends SW from the low to
23N65W to 20N69W. A sharp upper-level trough axis is practically
aligned with the surface front, and extends from near 31N51W, to
an upper-level low near 23N60W, to the Dominican Republic.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 20N-26N between 55W-
60W, and N of 29N within 30 nm behind and 90 nm ahead of the cold
front.

The dissipating stationary front from 23N65W to 20N69W along with
a trailing trough from 25N65W to the SE Bahamas will both
dissipate through today. A cold front will move over the NW waters
tonight, then reach from near 31N67W to 29N76W and become
stationary to near Cape Canaveral by early on Sat. Very strong
high pres will build across the western Atlantic behind this front
producing strong NE winds and high seas over the waters N and NE
of the Bahamas Sat and Sat night. Seas will be highest Sat night
from 28N-30N between 75W-80W, peaking around 10-13 ft over a
portion of the area. Winds and high seas will begin to slowly
subside beginning on Sun afternoon as the front dissipates. Return
flow under high pres will prevail early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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