[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071127
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will reach to just inland the Texas coast this
afternoon, then extend from southwestern Louisiana to northeastern
Mexico this evening, extend from near Destin, Florida to 26N90W
to 24N96W and stationary to near 21N97W early Fri, and weaken as
it reaches from near Tampa, Florida to 26N90W and stationary to
24N96W and to 19N96W by Fri evening. Strong to near gale force
winds, with possible occasional gusts to gale force will be
possible elsewhere over the western Gulf waters tonight into early
Fri. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

A NE gale is presently along the coast of N Colombia from 11N to
12N between 73.5W and 76.5W with seas 9 to 12 ft. The gale is
forecast to end on 07/1800 UTC, only to resume again on 08/0000
UTC. Gale-force winds are expected to pulse every night through
the weekend along the coast of N Colombia. Refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or
visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of northern Liberia
near 06N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Isolated moderate convection is in
the vicinity of the ITCZ from 05S-02N between 25W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb surface high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N76W.
10-20 kt SE to S winds are over the Gulf with strongest winds
over the W Gulf. Satellite imagery shows patchy fog along the
coast of Mexico W of 96.5W. Similar patchy fog is within 60 nm of
the coasts Texas and Louisiana, and within 30 nm of the coast
between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The remainder of the
Gulf has fair weather. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge
is over the Gulf with axis from the Bay of Campeche to the
Florida Panhandle. Strong subsidence is over the Gulf except over
the far NE Gulf.

High pressure NE of the area will maintain southerly return flow
over the basin through this afternoon. A cold front will reach to
just inland the Texas coast this afternoon, then extend from
southwestern Louisiana to northeastern Mexico this evening, from
near Destin, Florida to 26N90W to 24N96W and stationary to near
21N97W early Fri, and weaken as it reaches from near Tampa,
Florida to 26N90W and stationary to 24N96W and to 19N96W by Fri
evening. The front will weaken further becoming diffuse by late
Sat night. A tight pressure gradient between the front and strong
high pressure that will build across the region in its wake will
bring the possibility for gale force northwest to north winds
across the offshore of Mexico in the W central and SW Gulf Fri
afternoon into early Sat. Strong to near gale force winds, with
possible occasional gusts to gale force will be possible elsewhere
over the western Gulf waters tonight into early Fri. High
pressure that will shift eastward to the central Atlantic next
week will again allow for return flow to return to most of the
basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale warning is in effect along the coast of N Colombia. Refer
to the Special Features section above for details. Trade winds
are over the Caribbean Sea with lightest winds E of 70W.
Scattered showers are noted over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and N of
the Leeward Islands due to the tail end of a central Atlantic
front and a surface trough over the Leeward Islands. Strong
subsidence covers the remainder of the basin.

Weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will be replaced by
stronger high pressure that will build east- southeast across the
western Atlantic Fri through late Sun night. The pressure
difference between the high pressure and low pressure over
Colombia and the far SW Caribbean will bring strong trades across
the S central Caribbean pulsing to gale force off of Colombia each
night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds will expand in
coverage Fri through early Mon to include the Windward Passage and
the waters in the lee of Cuba. The winds across the Windward
Passage and lee of Cuba are forecast to diminish during Mon
afternoon, but may still be in the fresh to strong range in the
Windward Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb surface high is centered over the W Atlantic near
31N76W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N53W to
25N60W, then becomes stationary to 20N69W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 29N between 51W-55W. Scattered showers are
elsewhere N of 22N between 50W-59W. Scattered showers are also
within 90 nm of the stationary front. A 1030 mb high is over the
E Atlantic near 37N26W.

The central Atlantic cold front will move to 31N51W this morning,
while the stationary portion weakens through Fri. The next cold
front will move over the far northwestern waters Fri night, then
reach from near 31N67W to 29N76W and become stationary to near
Cape Canaveral by early on Sat. Very strong high pressure will
build across the western Atlantic behind this front. Seas to near
12 ft with strong northeast to winds are expected over the waters
north and northeast of the Bahamas Sat and Sat night. The strong
winds and high seas will begin to slowly subside beginning on Sun
afternoon as the front dissipates. Seas will continue to subside
on Mon as the high pressure weakens while it shifts eastward to
the central Atlantic waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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