[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will reach the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
tonight. Expect frequent gusts to gale-force within 60 nm of the
coast. The cold front, on Friday morning, will pass through the
Florida Panhandle, into the N central Gulf of Mexico, and to the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect gale-force winds, from 22N
to 24N to the west of the cold front. The gale-force winds will
be starting on Friday morning, and slow down and become less than
gale-force on Friday night. The sea heights will range from 9 feet
to 12 feet to the W of 97W, and from 8 feet to 10 feet elsewhere.
Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds are forecast for the south central Caribbean
Sea, in the waters that are off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to
13N between 73W and 77W, on Thursday night/Friday morning, and on
Friday night/Saturday morning. Please read the High Seas Forecast,
listed under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or visit
our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 04N13W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W,
to the Equator along 45W, to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 02N to 04N
between 02W and 07W, and from 04N to 06N between 10W and 13W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from
06N southward from 13W eastward, and from 03N southward between
14W and 38W. Rainshowers are possible from 01N southward between
45W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes 30N80W in the Atlantic Ocean, across N
Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, and to the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is moving through central
and southern sections of Texas at this time.

Surface high pressure, that extends from the western Atlantic
Ocean into the N Central Gulf of Mexico, will maintain southerly
return flow in the Gulf of Mexico through this afternoon. A cold
front will move into the Texas coastal waters this evening, move
SE and reach from near Destin, Florida to 26N90W to 24N96W and
stationary to near 21N97W early on Friday. The front will weaken
as it reaches from near Tampa, Florida to 26N90W and stationary to
24N96W to 19N96W by Friday evening. The front will weaken more,
and it will become diffuse by late Saturday night. Strong high
pressure, that is building behind the cold front, will produce
gale force winds across the offshore waters of Mexico in the W
central Gulf and in the SW Gulf of Mexico, from Friday afternoon
into early Saturday. Strong to near gale force winds, with gusts
to gale force, are expected elsewhere in the western Gulf waters
from tonight into early Friday. High pressure will shift eastward,
into the central Atlantic Ocean next week, and return flow will
return to most of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 24N61W
cyclonic circulation center, across Puerto Rico, to 16N71W in the
Caribbean Sea, toward central Nicaragua. The trough is forecast by
the GFE model to continue in more or less the same place, for the
next 48 hours or so. Scattered to broken low level clouds and
possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from the
southern coast of Puerto Rico, to 15N75W, into the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea near 80W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 07/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.76 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.06 in Guadeloupe, 0.02 in Montego Bay
in Jamaica, and 0.01 in Curacao.

Weak surface high pressure in the W Atlantic Ocean will be
replaced by stronger high pressure building across the western
Atlantic Ocean, from Friday through late Sunday night. This
pattern will induce strong trade winds across the S central
Caribbean Sea. Expect the winds to pulse to gale-force off the
coast of Colombia each night through Monday night. The strong
trade winds will expand in coverage, from Friday through early
Monday, in order to include the Windward Passage and the waters in
the lee of Cuba, and then begin to diminish late on Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N50W, to
28N54W, to a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 25N59W.
A dissipating stationary front extends from the 1018 mb low
pressure center, to 23N66W, and to the coast of the Dominican
Republic near 19N69.5W. A surface trough is to the east of the
dissipating frontal boundary, along 23N61W 21N63W 19N65W. A second
boundary moved into the Atlantic Ocean, to the NW of the 32N50W-
to-Dominican Republic frontal boundary. A surface trough extends
from a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 31N59W, to 26N64W,
to 24N70W, to the SE Bahamas near the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to 240 nm on either
side of the line that passes through 32N48W to 28N51W to 22N57W,
and from 15N to 20N between 53W and 62W. Rainshowers are possible,
also, elsewhere, from 20N northward between 60W and 75W. 24-hour
rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at
07/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.05 in
Bermuda.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N32W. Broad
upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward between Africa and 43W. A surface trough is along 25N31W
22N32W. Broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are
from 18N to 28N between 26W and 36W.

The current dissipating stationary front, that runs from near
23N65W to the NE coast of the Dominican Republic, will weaken and
dissipate through Friday night. The next cold front will move
through the far NW waters on Friday night, reach from near 31N67W
to 29N76W and become stationary to near Cape Canaveral by early
on Saturday. Very strong high pressure will build across the
western Atlantic Ocean behind this front, producing strong NE
winds and high seas in the waters that are to the north and
northeast of the Bahamas on Saturday and Saturday night. The winds
and the high seas will begin to subside slowly, beginning on
Sunday afternoon, as the front dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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