[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will move into the Texas coastal waters Thu evening
and reach from the Florida Big Bend to near the Chivela Pass
Mexico Fri evening. Gale force winds are possible offshore of
Mexico in the W central and SW Gulf Fri afternoon into early Sat.
Forecast indicates NW to N winds 25 to 35 kts with seas 8 to 13
feet. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure will build over the western Atlantic Thu through
the weekend, resulting in a tight pres gradient across the basin
and strong tradewinds across the S central Caribbean pulsing to
gale force off of Colombia each night through Mon night. Gale-
force winds are expected to pulse every night through the weekend
along the coast of N Colombia S of 12N between 74W and 73W with
seas 9 to 12 ft. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of northern Liberia
near 06N11W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Isolated moderate convection is in
the vicinity of the ITCZ from 05S-02N between 26W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb surface high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico
near 28N84W. 10-20 kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf with
strongest winds over the W Gulf. Satellite imagery shows patchy
fog along the coast of Mexico W of 96W, and within 90 nm of the
coasts Texas and Louisiana. Broken high clouds are over the NE
Gulf N of 26N and E of 90W. The remainder of the Gulf has fair
weather. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the
Gulf with axis from the Bay of Campeche to the Florida Panhandle.
Strong subsidence is over the Gulf except over the NE Gulf.

High pressure NE of the area will maintain southerly return flow
over the basin through Thu afternoon. A cold front will move into
the Texas coastal waters Thu evening, reaching from the Florida
Big Bend to near the Chivela Pass Mexico Fri evening, stalling and
becoming diffuse across the central and eastern Gulf this weekend.
Gale force winds are possible offshore of Mexico in the W central
and SW Gulf Fri afternoon into early Sat. High pres will again be
centered NE of the area early next week allowing for return flow
to return.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale warning is in effect along the coast of N Colombia. Refer
to the Special Features section above for details. Scatterometer
data depicts light to gentle trades across the eastern half of the
basin while moderate to fresh NE winds prevail W of 70W.
Scattered showers are noted over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico due
to the proximity of a frontal boundary from the N and a surface
trough extending from 20N64W to 14N66W. Strong subsidence covers
the remainder of the basin.

Weak high pres along the NE coast of Florida will promote fresh
to strong tradewinds over the S central Caribbean through tonight.
High pres will build over the western Atlantic Thu through the
weekend, resulting in a tight pres gradient across the basin and
strong tradewinds across the S central Caribbean pulsing to gale
force off of Colombia each night through Mon night. Fresh to
strong winds will expand in coverage Fri through the weekend to
include the Windward Passage and the waters in the lee of Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb surface high is centered near 30N77W. A cold front is
over the central Atlantic from 31N55W to 26N60W to 22N66W, then
becomes stationary to 20N69W. Scattered showers are noted E of
the cold front mainly N of 22N between 50W-60W. A 1032 mb high is
over the E Atlantic near 38N25W.

The central Atlantic front will drift E through Thu as high
pres builds across the W Atlantic. The next cold front will move
over the far NW waters Fri night then reach from near 31N67W to
28N76W and become stationary to near Cape Canaveral on Sat. Very
strong high pres behind this front will lead to strong NE to E
winds along with building seas, likely to peak to around 13 ft,
over the waters N and NE of the Bahamas late on Sat. Winds and
seas N through NE of the Bahamas will slowly subside on Sun as the
front dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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