[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Fresh to strong winds over the S central Caribbean will pulse to
near gale force tonight, then reaching minimal gale force Thu
night, and each subsequent night into the early morning hours as
high pres builds N of the area. Northeast winds are forecast to
range between 25 to 35 kts with seas around 9 to 11 feet from 11N
to 13N between 73.5W-76.5W. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W. Scattered moderate
convection is in the vicinity of the ITCZ extending 300 nm south
of the ITCZ between 25W-30W. Isolated showers are from 00N-02N
between 16W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough axis extends over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
from 29N85W to 23N86W. A 1021 mb surface high is centered over N
Florida near the Big Bend, with lower surface pressure over Texas.
Recent ASCAT data indicates gentle to moderate SE winds covering
the Gulf. Total precipitable water imagery indicates a relatively
moist environment especially along the northern Gulf coast. Due to
the moisture content, marine dense fog is observed across the
northern and eastern Gulf coast extending from Tampa, Florida
through Brownsville, Texas. Areas of dense fog extend out to 20 to
60 nm with Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect through Wednesday.
In addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the
north-central Gulf into Mississippi and Alabama coast.

High pressure centered over N Florida will shift eastward over
the western Atlc by Thu as a strong cold front moves across
eastern Texas. This front will move over the NW Gulf Thu night,
quickly reaching from Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by
Fri evening then weaken as it reaches from Sarasota to near 26N90W
and becomes stationary to the SW Gulf Sat. Very strong high pressure
in the wake of the front will lead to strong to near gale force
northerly winds over the W central and SW Gulf Fri through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends over the Virgin Islands and E Caribbean
from 18N63W to 13N64W accompanied by only isolated showers. Water
vapor imagery shows dry air covers the Caribbean. The latest
ASCAT pass shows moderate to locally fresh trade winds cover most
of the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong winds over the S central Caribbean will pulse to
near gale force tonight, then reaching minimal gale force Thu
night, and each subsequent night into the early morning hours as
high pres builds N of the area. Otherwise, mainly moderate to
locally fresh winds will continue across the basin through Thu
night, increasing to fresh to strong speeds and expanding in
coverage beginning on Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N62W to the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Scattered moderate convection is E of the front N
of 24N between 55W-61W. The convection is being enhanced by strong
upper-level diffluence to the SE of a large upper-level low
centered near 34N64W. A 1032 mb high is over the central Atlantic
near 37N36W. The tail end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic
from 31N36W to 29N36W. Scattered showers are present in the
vicinity of the front mainly north of 28N between 34W-35W. Further
east, a surface trough is present from 28N22W to 20N18W. No
significant convection is observed within the surface trough at
this time.

Broad low pres prevails off of Cape Hatteras with associated cold
front extending from E of Bermuda to 27N65W continuing as stationary
to the N coast of Hispaniola. The front will manage to drift E of
65W through the end of the week while high pres builds down from
the N. High pres will build across the area in the wake of the
front. The next cold front will move over the far NW waters on Fri
night then reach from near 31N67W to 28N76W and become stationary
to inland Florida near Cape Canaveral on Sat. Very strong high
pres behind this front will lead to strong NE to E winds along
with building seas, possibly peaking to around 13 ft, over the
waters N and NE of the Bahamas late on Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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