[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1227 PM EST Tue Feb 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from
03N14W to 01S24W to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06S-00N between 23W-30W. Isolated
showers are from 00N-02N between 16W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough axis extends over the Gulf of Mexico from
30N87W to 19N90W. A 1020 mb surface high is centered over northern
Florida near the Big Bend, with lower surface pressure over Texas.
Gentle to moderate SE winds cover the Gulf. Total precipitable
water imagery indicates a relatively moist environment. Due to the
moisture and upper-level trough in the area, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are over the north-central Gulf N of 25N from
85W-92W.

High pressure centered over N Florida will shift eastward over
the western Atlc by Thu as a strong cold front moves across
eastern Texas. This front will move over the NW Gulf Thu night,
reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by Fri
evening then weaken as it reaches from Sarasota to near 26N90W and
becomes stationary to the SW Gulf. Very strong high pressure in
the wake of the front will lead to strong to near gale force north
to northeast winds over the waters northwest of the front Fri
through Sat. Gale force northwest to north winds are possible over
the far western and SW Gulf waters Fri and Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends over the Virgin Islands and E Caribbean
from 19N63W to 13N64W accompanied by only a few light showers.
Water vapor imagery shows dry air covers the Caribbean. The
latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to locally fresh trade winds
cover most of the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong winds over the S central Caribbean will briefly
pulse to near gale force at night near the coast of Colombia
through Wed night. High pres will build across the SW N Atlc late
Thu through the weekend to induce minimal gale force winds along
Colombia each night. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh
winds will continue across the basin through Thu night, increasing
to fresh to strong speeds and expanding in coverage beginning on
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Scattered moderate convection is E of the front N
of 24N between 54W-66W. The convection is being enhanced by strong
upper-level diffluence to the SE of a large upper-level low
centered near 34N66W. A 1033 mb high is over the central Atlantic
near 37N41W. The tail end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic
from 31N36W to 30N39W. An upper level trough is over the central
Atlantic N of 20N between 30W-45W producing scattered moderate
convection from 27N-32N between 32W-40W.

The cold front over the W Atlantic will become stationary from
near 24N65W to the northern coast of Hispaniola by Wed morning and
dissipate Thu. High pressure will build across the area in the
wake of the front. The next cold front will move over the far NW
waters on Fri night then reach from near 31N67W to 28N76W and
become stationary to near Cape Canaveral Florida on Sat. Very
strong high pressure behind this front will lead to strong
northeast to east winds along with building seas over the waters
north and northeast of the Bahamas late on Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net