[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1243 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Fresh to strong winds over the S central Caribbean will pulse to
near gale force tonight, then reach minimal gale force Wed night,
and each subsequent night through Sun night. Northeast winds are
forecast to range between 25 to 35 kts with seas around 9 to 11
feet from 11N to 13N between 73.5W-76.5W. Refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast
of southern Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N17W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W.
Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the ITCZ from
02N-04N between 18W-21W, and from 03S-08S between 31W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over N Florida near 29N83W. 10-15 kt E
to SE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest
winds over the NW Gulf. The entire Gulf is void of convection.
Patchy fog is along the N Gulf from S Texas to the Florida
Panhandle. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the
Gulf with axis along 95W. Upper level moisture and broken high
clouds are over the NW Gulf. the remainder of the Gulf has strong
subsidence.

High pressure centered over N Florida will shift eastward over
the western Atlantic by Thu as a strong cold front moves across
eastern Texas. This front will move over the NW Gulf Thu night,
quickly reaching from Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by
Fri evening, then weaken as it reaches from Sarasota, Florida to
near 26N90W and becomes stationary to the SW Gulf Sat. Very strong
high pressure in the wake of the front will lead to strong to
near gale force northerly winds over the W central and SW Gulf Fri
through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the Leeward Islands from 20N64W to
15N65W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the trough. 10-30 kt
tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia, and weakest winds just S of
Hispaniola. Patches of scattered showers are N of Puerto Rico,
over Hispaniola, S of Jamaica, and inland over Guatemala,
Honduras, and Nicaragua. In the upper levels, the base of a trough
is over Cuba, while a ridge is over the E Caribbean with axis
along 65W. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong winds over the S central Caribbean will pulse to
near gale force tonight, then reaching minimal gale force Wed
night. See above. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh
winds will continue across the basin through Thu night, increasing
to fresh to strong speeds and expanding in coverage beginning on
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N60W to 26N65W. A
stationary front continues to Hispaniola near 20N72W. Scattered
moderate convection is E of the front N of 24N between 54W-62W.
The convection is being enhanced by strong upper-level diffluence
to the SE of a large upper-level low centered near 34N63W. A 1034
mb high is over the central Atlantic near 37N41W. The tail end of
a cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N33W to 28N38W.
Scattered showers are present in the vicinity of the front mainly
north of 27N between 30W-36W. Further east, a surface trough is
present from 28N24W to 21N20W. No significant convection is
observed within the surface trough at this time.

Over the W Atlantic the front will manage to drift E of 65W
through the end of the week while high pres builds down from the
N. The next cold front will move over the far NW waters on Fri
night then reach from near 31N67W to 28N76W and become stationary
to inland Florida near Cape Canaveral on Sat. Very strong high
pres behind this front will lead to strong NE to E winds along
with building seas, possibly peaking to around 13 ft, over the
waters N and NE of the Bahamas late on Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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