[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Sun Feb 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: the website: www.meteofrance.com/
previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.
Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called:
AGADIR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 06N11W, to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W, to
the coast of Brazil near 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection
are in the vicinity of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is in the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico near
28N82W to 27N89W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are from 25N northward. A mix of 500 to 1500
feet low level clouds cover most of the northern and east Gulf
coast. Dense fog is observed north of 25N between 81W to 83W.

Building high pressure north of the Gulf will promote quiescent
conditions through Thu. A strong cold front will reach the NW
waters late Thu night, with gales possible in the west central and
southwest Gulf on Fri and Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from the northern parts of Colombia,
near La Peninsula de la Guajira, northwestward toward the border
area of NW Nicaragua and E Honduras, and to the Gulf of Honduras/
Belize. 10-30 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with
locally fresh to strong winds along the coast of N Colombia.
Clusters of broken low clouds with scattered showers are over the
E Caribbean E of 65W-71W. Similar showers are over Hispaniola, E
Cuba, Jamaica, the NW Caribbean, and E Honduras.

Fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean will pulse to
near gale at night near the Coast of Colombia through Wed night.
The tradewinds may reach gale force on Thu or Fri night.
Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will continue
across the forecast waters. No significant cold fronts are
expected for the next several days to reach the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 mb low pressure is centered at 31N77W with a surface trough
extending south across northern Bahamas to near 24N70W. A cold
front extends westward into the Florida Peninsula to 28N80W.
Scattered moderate convection is present to the east of the
trough mainly from 26N to 31N between 69W-75W. A cold front is
within 31N43W to 27N53W. A stationary front extends from that
point to 25N70W. Scattered moderate convection is observed 80
to 250 nm on either side of the boundary. A surface trough is
along 55W from 12N-22N. Scattered showers are possible in the
vicinity of the trough axis.

Low pressure near 31N78W is tracking northeastward away from the
area this evening. Associated weak cold front will progress
eastward across the forecast waters through midweek. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front with quiescent conditions
through Fri. A second stronger cold front should reach the
Atlantic coast off of Florida Fri night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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