[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1238 PM EST Sun Feb 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: the website: www.meteofrance.com/
previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.
Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called:
AGADIR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N11W, to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W, to
01N23W, 02N31W, 01N38W, to 01N49W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 05N southward from 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is in the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico, along
27N/28N between the west coast of Florida and 88W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from
26N northward from Texas to Florida. Other broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from
26N southward from 90W westward. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is moving into the Carolinas. Upper level
westerly wind flow is moving across the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will build across the area and prevail through the
middle of the week. A cold front will approach the NW waters late
on Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from the northern parts of Colombia,
near La Peninsula de la Guajira, northwestward toward the border
area of NW Nicaragua and E Honduras, and to the Gulf of Honduras/
Belize.

The 700 mb GFS model shows a trough that extends from E Honduras,
to W Jamaica, into the Windward Passage. The 700 mb GFS model also
shows a trough from NE Colombia, across the coastal sections of
Venezuela, to 13N65W, and beyond 14N60W, into the Atlantic Ocean.

Scattered to broken low and middle level clouds and possible
rainshowers are in much of the Caribbean Sea, except for the area
that is from 13N southward between 70W and 78W. 24-hour rainfall
totals that are listed for the period that ended at 03/1200 UTC...
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.02 in Guadeloupe.

Fresh to strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean Sea will
pulse to near gale at night near the Coast of Colombia, through
the forecast period. Expect mainly moderate to locally fresh
trade winds will continue elsewhere across the forecast waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 34N73W to 33N77W, to a 1015 mb low
pressure center that is near 31N79W. The trough continues from the
low pressure center to 29N80W, and curving to the east coast of
Florida near 28N. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong rainshowers are from 29N northward from 70W
westward.

A cold front passes through 32N44W, to 29N50W, to 28N54W. The
front becomes stationary, and it continues from 28N54W, to 27N60W
24N72W, and to the Bahamas near 24N77W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are within 360 nm to the north and
northwest of the line that passes through 32N37W, to 25N44W
23N52W 25N70W, and to 27N80W at the east coast of Florida.
24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 03/1200 UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.72 in
Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.06 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and 0.04
in Bermuda.

One surface trough is along 26N58W 23N60W 20N62W. Rainshowers are
possible from 20N to 25N between 58W and 70W. A second surface
trough is along 22N54W 18N55W 13N55W. Rainshowers are possible
from 10N to 23N between 50W and 60W.

The current low pressure center that is near 31N79W will track
northeastward and away from the area this afternoon. The
associated cold front will shift across the forecast waters
through the middle of the week. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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