[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 PM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N10W to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from 01N18W to 02S29W
to the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection extends 400 nm miles east and west of the
monsoon trough from 01S-04N between 06W-17W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection extends from 02S-01N between 25W-34W.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are present near the coast of
Brazil mainly west of 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb low pressure centered at 27N95W is just to the south of
Corpus Christi, Texas. A stationary front extends from the low to
25N91W to 26N85W. A surface trough extends south of the low
pressure 27N95W to 10N94W. A second surface trough is in the
coastal waters, from SE Texas to Louisiana. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is present from 25N-27N between 84W-87W.
Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are noted in the
nearest radars along the Panhandle of Florida to the Apalachee
Bay. The 1017 mb low will gradually shift across the northern
Gulf of Mexico Sat and Sat night before dissipating by early Sun.
High pressure will then build across the area and prevail by
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea.
Abundant dry air is observed across the Western Caribbean near
the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula into western Cuba while across
the low level moisture is noted in latest sounding data across the
Greater Antilles and water vapor imagery. Moderate to locally fresh
trade winds prevail over much of the Caribbean Sea, with ASCAT
pass indicating fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible across the Caribbean but no significant convection
is noted at this time.

Fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean will pulse to
near gale at night near the Coast of Colombia through the period.
Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail
through the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A coastal trough extends along the east coast of Florida near
30N81W to SW Florida. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms
are noted in the nearest radars along the east coast of Florida.
Further east, a stationary front extends from 31N57W to SE Bahamas
near 22N73W to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are in the vicinity
of the stationary front. East of the stationary front, a pair of
surface troughs are noted. One extends from 27N49W to 20N51W and
contains no convection. The other trough extends from 19N45W to
11N47W. Scattered showers are noted 200 nm to the east of the
trough. High pressure covers the area N of 23N between 22W- 47W,
anchored by a 1026 mb high near 33N36W.

The stationary front stretching from near 31N57W to SE Bahamas to
eastern Cuba will gradually become diffuse, with its remnants to
slowly lift back to the N as a warm front by early Sat. A coastal
or frontal trough along the NE Florida coast will remain in place
through early Sat before it shifts E-NE across the NW waters
through Sun. Weak low pres is expected to develop along the trough
on Sun, shifting eastward Mon night. High pres will build in from
the Carolinas early next week in the wake of the low and trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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