[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 AM EST Sat Feb 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A Gale Warning in currently in effect for the Caribbean waters
from 11N-12.5N between 73.5W-76W. These conditions will continue
through Sat morning. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast
product, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N10W to 01S19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
01S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 250 nm
miles on either side of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb low pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf near
27N95W. A surface trough extends from the low to 21N97W. A warm
front extends east from the low to 27N92W, then becomes stationary
from that point to 26N90W. Another 1017 mb low is centered near
28N88W. A cold front extends from the low to 26N90W. A warm front
is noted from the low to 27N84W, then becomes stationary to
28N79W. This low is well depicted in scatterometer data, and
scattered showers are observed mainly across the northeast
quadrant.

Expect for the low across the northwest Gulf to dissipate. The
second low will shift across the northern Gulf through Sat
before dissipating by early Sun. High pressure will then build
across the area and prevail by early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Refer to the section above for details.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans across the
basin. Abundant dry air is observed across the western Caribbean
near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula into western Cuba, while
low level moisture is noted in latest sounding data across the
Greater Antilles. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail
over much of the Caribbean, as noted in scatterometer data.

Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail through the
next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A coastal trough extends along the west Atlantic from 29N81W to
32N79W. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are noted in
radar and satellite imagery mainly north of 27N between 77W-81W.
Further east, a stationary front extends from 31N56W to SE
Bahamas near 23N73W, then transitions to a warm front from that
point to 23N78W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the
stationary front. To the east of this feature, a pair of surface
troughs are analyzed. The first extends from 28N54W to 20N55W and
has no convection at this time. The second trough extends from
21N49W to 11N49W. Scattered showers are noted 200 nm to the east
of the trough. High pressure covers the remainder of the area,
anchored by a 1028 mb surface high centered near 33N36W.

The stationary front over the west Atlantic will gradually become
diffuse, with its remnants to slowly lift back to the N as a warm
front by early Sat. The coastal trough over the east Florida
coastal waters will remain in place through early Sat before it
shifts E-NE across the NW waters through Sun. Weak low pressure
is expected to develop along the trough on Sun, shifting eastward
Mon night. High pressure will build in from the Carolinas early
next week in the wake of the low and trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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