[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1243 PM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N11W, to the Equator along 16W, to 02S18W. The ITCZ
continues from 02S18W, to 03S21W and 03S42W. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from the
Equator to 05N between 03W and 22W, and from 01N to 05S between
16W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb low pressure center is just to the south of Corpus
Christi, and just to the west of Padre Island National Seashore,
in Texas. A warm front extends from the low pressure center, to
28N94W and 26N88W, in the central Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough extends from the low pressure center, into the southwest
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the northern coast of the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec. A second surface trough is in the coastal waters,
from SE Louisiana to the Upper Texas Gulf coast. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the north central
Gulf waters, from 24N northward between 84W and 92W.

Weak low pressure will shift across the northern Gulf of Mexico
through the weekend, before dissipating by Sunday. High pressure
then will build across the area and prevail by early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Caribbean Sea.

Broken to overcast low level clouds and possible rainshowers cover
much of the area, except for the areas that are from 13N southward
between 70W and 80W, and from 13N to 15N between 72W and 77W.
24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 01/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.04 in San Juan in Puerto Rico.

Fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea
will pulse to near gale at night near the Coast of Colombia
through the period. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds
will prevail through the next several days, elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A north-to-south oriented trough is along 81W, from south Florida
to 30N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean,
from 25N northward from 70W to the east coast of Florida.

A stationary front passes through 32N57W, to 30N60W, 25N70W,
across the Bahamas near 23N74W, to Cuba near 21N78W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the line that passes
through 32N54W to 27N66W to 22N79W in Cuba.

A surface trough is along 27N48W to 24N49W to 20N50W. The trough
is evident in visible satellite imagery and in infrared imagery.
Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers
cover the Atlantic Ocean from 14N to 28N between 44W and 60W.

A second surface trough is along 20N45W 16N46W 13N46W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 11N to 23N between 37W and 50W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 12N
to 28N between 30W and 51W.

The current stationary front gradually will become diffuse. Its
remnants are forecast to move northward slowly, as a warm front
by early Saturday. A coastal trough along the northeastern
Florida coast will remain in place through early Saturday, before
it shifts east-northeastward across the northwestern waters of the
Atlantic Ocean through Sunday. Weak low pressure is expected to
develop along the surface trough on Sunday, shifting eastward on
Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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