[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011127
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISION-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The Forecast Outlook for the
24 hr period beginning 12 UTC Saturday shows the threat of near
gale to gale-force winds for the areas Agadir and Tarfaya near
the coast of Morocco.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 00N16W to 01S18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
03S32W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen south of the monsoon trough
from 03S-06N between 06W-17W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are seen within 120 nm of the ITCZ, and near the coast of Brazil
from 04S-00N between 42W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, two 1015 mb surface lows are analyzed - one just
inland in S Texas near 27N98W and the other near 27N94W in the
western Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front connects the two lows.
A warm front extends E from the Gulf low to 27N92W to 26N89W. A
surface trough extends over the SW Gulf from 26N95W to 20N97W.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 24N-30N between 88W-94W. This convection is being
enhanced by upper-level diffluence and upper-level divergence in
the area, as an upper-level trough is located just to the west,
over the NW corner of the Gulf and east Texas. Strong E winds are
observed within 90 nm N of the warm front. Strong SE winds are
within 90 nm S of the warm front. Gusts to near gale are likely
occurring in the stronger convection near the warm front.

A trough extending near the coast of Texas from weak low pressure
just inland over southern Texas will change little through
tonight, then move inland by Sat afternoon. The combination of
this trough and an upper-level disturbance moving across the NW
Gulf will continue to lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms
moving from W to E over the N central Gulf waters through
tonight, and over a part of the NE Gulf on Sat. Otherwise, high
pressure will extend from the Mid-Atlantic coast south-southwest
to across the Gulf through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh tradewinds prevail over much of the Caribbean Sea, with an
01/0246 UTC ASCAT pass showing strong to near gales near the coast
of Colombia. A few typical patches of broken low clouds and
isolated showers are in the NW Caribbean from 17N-19N between 81W-
85W, but no significant convection is noted.

Fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean will pulse to
near gale at night near the coast of Colombia through the period.
Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail
through the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A coastal trough is along the coast of northern and central
Florida. Scattered showers are seen along and within 60 nm east
of the E coast of Florida. A stationary front extends from 32N57W
to 22N77W. Scattered showers are seen near the front N of 29N,
with isolated showers near the remainder of the front. To the E, a
pair of surface troughs are noted. One extends along 50W from
19N-26N and contains no convection. The other extends from 20N42W
to 15N44W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 15N-20N
between 41W-45W, enhanced by an elongated upper-level low that is
centered near 21N41W. High pressure covers the area N of 26N
between 24W-50W, anchored by a 1026 mb high near 33N39W.

A trough along the east coast of northern and central Florida will
remain in place through early Sat before it shifts east-
northeastward across the northwestern waters through Sun. Weak
low pressure is expected to develop along the trough on Sun. The
low and trough will then begin to shift eastward Mon night as an
upper-level disturbance moves from W to E across the northwestern
part of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop over these waters beginning on Sat. The stationary
front stretching from near 27N65W to eastern Cuba will gradually
become diffuse, with its remnants to slowly lift back to the north
as a warm front beginning this evening or early Sat. Otherwise,
rather weak high pressure will remain across the area through the
period.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net