[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301702
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1202 PM EST Mon Dec 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough crosses the Prime Meridian at 05N and continues
to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 01N20W to 03N28W to
near 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm
north of the monsoon trough between 02W and 05W, and between 11W
and 14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends SW from near Apalachicola, Florida across the
central Gulf of Mexico to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W. Recent
buoy observations show fresh northerly winds behind the front
across the NW Gulf, with strong winds likely found near the front
over the west-central Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of
the front over the eastern Gulf. Earlier satellite and lightning
data showed scattered moderate convection east of the trough, but
now mainly scattered showers prevail over the eastern offshore
waters. Meanwhile, surface high pressure continues building into
the NW Gulf and over eastern Mexico in the wake of the cold front.

The cold front will stall from the Straits of Florida to weak low
pressure near Tampico, Mexico by late Tue. The low and accompanying
front will dissipate Wed and Thu as they lift northward over the
western Gulf. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Thu
night and reach from near Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche by Fri
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicates deep-layer dry air dominates
much of the Caribbean this morning with broad subsidence aloft.
Limited shower activity is noted over Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands in association with a weak surface trough depicted in
recent scatterometer data. Surface high pressure persists north of
the region, and strong to locally near gale force winds are noted
in scatterometer data near the coast of Colombia within the tight
local pressure gradient. A 10 UTC Jason-3 altimeter pass shows
seas are running 8-11 ft within these strong trades. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trades prevail across much of the region with
seas less than 8 ft.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean. Winds
will diminish slightly through late Tue as the high pressure
shifts southeastward and weakens. Meanwhile, long-period north
swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages and the
tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands
through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure near 29N63W maintains a surface ridge across much of
the SW N Atlantic waters this morning. Fresh to strong S to SW
flow is likely occurring off the northeast coast of Florida ahead
of a cold front that is nearing the southeast U.S. coast. Over
the central Atlantic, the tail end of a cold front extends into
the forecast waters from 31N47W to 29N52W. Scatterometer data from
earlier this morning showed fresh to strong SW winds within 240
nm east of the front. Farther east, a dissipating stationary front
extends from 31N24W to 22N30W, while a surface trough is analyzed
from 22N33W to 18N40W to 17N47W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 90 nm of the trough west of 45W. Northerly swell
remains across much of the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic
waters, with seas to 11 ft east of 50W based on several recent
altimeter passes. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge extends across
the northern waters roughly along 27N between 35W and 63W.

High pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters will shift east of
the area through Tue ahead of a cold front that will move off the
northeast Florida coast tonight. The front will continue to move
southeastward through Tue, reaching from near Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida through mid week. The front will stall and
weaken along roughly 22N through Thu night before dissipating Fri.
Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by
late Fri.

$$
Reinhart
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