[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 PM EST Mon Dec 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 02N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-
06N between 07W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
coast of Brazil from 00S-05S between 38W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 30/2100 UTC, a cold front extends SW from near Cedar Key,
Florida to the south central Gulf of Mexico near 23N90W to a 1012
mb low in the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W to the coast of Mexico
near 19N95W. 15-25 kt northerly winds are north of the front. 5-10
kt southerly winds are south of the front. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front.

In the upper levels, SW upper level flow is noted with strong
subsidence.

The cold front will stall from the Straits of Florida to weak low
pressure near Tampico, Mexico by Tue afternoon. The low and
accompanying front should dissipate Wed. On Wed and Thu, fresh to
strong SE to S return flow should set up over most of the Gulf. A
stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast Thu night,
should reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by
Fri afternoon, and move south and east of the Gulf by Sat
afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are over the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto
Rico, and Hispaniola. Elsewhere scattered moderate convection is
over the SW Caribbean S of 10N to include Costa Rica, Panama, and
N Colombia. 5-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with
strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia.

In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the
W Caribbean near 16N79W. Strong subsidence covers most of the
Caribbean Sea except along the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama.

The Bermuda High north of the area is supporting fresh to strong
NE to E trades over most of the central Caribbean. Winds will
diminish some late Tue through Sat night as the Bermuda High
shifts eastward and weakens. On Sat, a strong cold front will
reach the NW Caribbean. Meanwhile, long-period N swell will
propagate through the Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic
waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands. This large N swell
will diminish by Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is presently approaching Jacksonville, Florida and
will soon enter the Atlantic. Scattered showers are along the NE
Florida coast. A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
28N61W. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N44W
to 29N50W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough.
Another surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 30N30W to
21N35W to 17N41W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of this
trough.

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough axis extends
over the E Atlantic from 31N35W to 13N50W enhancing showers.

A surface ridge from the Bermuda High will shift east by Tue.
The Florida cold front will move southeastward, reaching from
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Wed. The front will stall
and weaken along roughly 25N on Thu, and then dissipate Fri. A
stronger cold front should move off the northeast Florida coast by
late Fri and reach the NW Bahamas by Sat.

$$
Formosa
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