[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301148
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 04N along the Prime Meridian,
to 05N12W, and 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 01N30W,
and to the Equator along 43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong within 135 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/
ITCZ, and to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, mostly between
06W and 25W, and elsewhere from 04N southward from 42W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the north
central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. A
surface trough is about 200 nm to the east of the cold front, from
23N to 30N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
is within 90 nm to the east of the surface trough from 23N to 27N.

Surface high pressure has built into the westernmost sections of
the Gulf of Mexico, from the Texas coast toward the cold front.

Upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, on the eastern
side of an upper level trough that still is inland in the central
U.S.A.

The current cold front will reach from southwest Florida to near
Veracruz Mexico by late Monday. The front will stall from the
Straits of Florida to a weak low pressure center that is forecast
to be near Tampico Mexico, by late Tuesday. The low pressure
center and accompanying front will dissipate on Wednesday and
Thursday, as they move northward in the western Gulf of Mexico.
A second and stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast
Thursday night. The second cold front will reach from near Tampa
Bay to the Bay of Campeche by Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough from Jamaica to the
northern coast of Colombia. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 24N
between 50W and 88W.

The southwesternmost part of a shear line is along 17N between 60W
and 65W. Rainshowers are possible, including near the shear line,
in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds, from 14N
northward from 78W eastward.

Surface high pressure to the north of the area will support fresh
to strong northeast to east winds in most of the central
Caribbean Sea. These winds will diminish slightly through late
Tuesday, as the high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens.
Long-period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic Ocean
passages, and the tropical Atlantic Ocean, off the Leeward and
Windward Islands, through the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a cold
front that passes through 32N47W 30N54W, beyond 32N63W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
210 nm to the southeast of the cold front from 29N northward.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 32N24W
to 28N27W and 23N29W. A surface trough continues from 23N29W,
to 18N37W, and 16N45W. A shear line continues from 16N45W, to
18N59W, and 17N65W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 120 nm to the north of the shear line between 45W
and 47W, and within 45 nm on either side of the shear line between
50W and 53W.

High pressure across the forecast waters will shift to the east
of the area through Tuesday. The high pressure will be in advance
of a cold front, that will move off the northeast Florida coast
tonight. The front will continue to move southeastward through
Tuesday. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida through the middle of the week. The front will stall and
weaken along 22N on Thursday night, and then dissipate on Friday.
Another front will move off the northeast Florida coast by late
Friday.

$$
MT
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