[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 03N17W 03N26W,
crossing the Equator along 44W, to the coast of Brazil near
01N47W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 33W and
38W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 15W and 20W, and from the monsoon
trough/ITCZ southward between 07W and 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through south central coastal Louisiana, to
the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 450 nm to 500 nm to the east of the
cold front from 23N to 28N. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and other possible rainshowers, are elsewhere in the Gulf
of Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, on
the eastern side of an upper level trough that still is in Texas.

The current cold front will reach from near Apalachicola, Florida
to near Veracruz Mexico by early Monday. The front will continue,
from near Tampa, Florida to 22N90W and stationary to near 21N97W
by early Monday evening; and from near Naples to along the
northern Yucatan Peninsula, then stationary to near 21N97W early
on Tuesday. The front will become stationary from along northwest
Cuba to near 21N93W and to weak low pressure near 22N97W by late
Tuesday night. The low pressure center is forecast to move
northward along the coast of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday
night, and along the Texas coast on Thursday and Thursday night,
while it dissipates. Strong southerly winds will develop in much
of the western and central Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, in advance
of a second and approaching cold front. The second front will move
off the Texas and southwest Louisiana coast late on Thursday
afternoon or early Thursday evening. The second front will reach
from near the western Florida Panhandle to 25N92W and to the SW
Gulf of Mexico early on Friday; and from near Apalachicola,
Florida to 25N89W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche late on
Friday. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the second
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough from Jamaica to the
northern coast of Colombia. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 11N to 25N
between 56W and 82W.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered to broken low
level clouds, from 14N northward from 76W eastward.

Surface high pressure to the north of the area will support fresh
to strong northeast to east winds in most of the central
Caribbean Sea through tonight. These winds will diminish slightly
through Tuesday, as the high pressure shifts southeastward and
weakens. Long-period north swell will propagate through the
Atlantic Ocean passages, and the tropical Atlantic Ocean, off the
Leeward and Windward Islands, through the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a cold
front that passes through 32N50W 31N55W, beyond 32N60W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 150 nm
to the southeast of the cold front between 44W and 49W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N22W to
31N23W. The front becomes stationary at 31N23W, and it continues
to 21N31W. The front is dissipating stationary from 21N31W, to
16N44W and 19N59W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong within 90 nm to the north of the dissipating stationary
front between 44W and 55W, and near the end of the front near
18N59W.

High pressure across the forecast waters will shift to the east
of the area through Tuesday. The high pressure will be in advance
of a cold front, that will move off the northeast Florida coast
on Monday night. The front will continue to move southeastward
through Tuesday. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by early Wednesday, before stalling and
weakening along roughly 22N, through Thursday night, and
dissipate on Friday.

$$
MT
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