[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 04N26W to the coast
of Brazil near 00N48W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-
05N between 07W-15W, and from 01N-04N between 30W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 29/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from SW Louisiana near
30N93W to N of Tampico Mexico near 23N98W. Radar imagery shows
scattered showers along the coast of Louisiana. Scattered moderate
convection is also over the NE Gulf of Mexico from 27N-31N between
84W-87W. 25 kt northerly winds are N of the front. The remainder
of the Gulf has 10-15 kt southerly flow.

In the upper levels, a large trough is over the central USA with
axis along 96W with broken to overcast high clouds. A large ridge
is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 80W and strong
subsidence.

The cold front will reach from from near Apalachicola, Florida to
near Veracruz Mexico by early Mon, from near Tampa, Florida to
22N90W and stationary to near 21N97W by early Mon evening and from
near Naples to along the northern Yucatan Peninsula then
stationary to near 21N97W early Tue. The front will become
stationary from along northwest Cuba to near 21N93W and to weak
low pressure near 22N97W by late Tue night. The low is forecast to
lift northward along the coast of Mexico Wed and Wed night and
along the Texas coast on Thu and Thu night while it dissipates.
Strong southerly winds will develop over much of the western and
central Gulf on Thu ahead of an approaching cold front. This front
will move off the Texas and southwest Louisiana coast late Thu
afternoon or early Thu evening, reach from near western Florida
panhandle to 25N92W and to the SW Gulf early Fri and from near
Apalachicola, Florida to 25N89W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche
late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow in behind
this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate convection is over Costa Rica, Panama, and N
Colombia. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea has mostly fair
weather. Tradewinds are 10-20 kt with strongest winds along the
coast of N Colombia.

In the upper levels a ridge is over the W Caribbean and Central
America. Zonal flow is over the E Caribbean. Strong subsidence
covers the entire Caribbean.

Surface high pressure north of the area will support fresh to
strong northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean
through tonight. These winds will diminish slightly through Tue as
the high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens. Meanwhile,
long-period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic
passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and
Windward Islands through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 31N70W. A 1022 mb high
is over the central Atlantic near 34N31W. A stationary front is
over the E Atlantic from 31N22W to 21N31W. A dissipating
stationary front continues to 17N40W to 17N55W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the front.

Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over
the E Atlantic N of 25N between 25W-60W supporting the surface
front.

High pressure across the forecast waters will shift east of the
area through Tue ahead of a cold front that will move off the
northeast Florida coast Mon night. The front will continue to move
southeastward through Tue, reaching from near Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by early Wed before stalling and weakening
along roughly 22N through Thu night and dissipate Fri.

$$
Formosa
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